Is now a good time to buy a home in Arizona?
The typical home value in Arizona is $418K as of Aug 2026 (Zillow Home Value Index), down 0.9% from a year earlier. Over five years prices have compounded at +1.3% a year and sit 10.2% below their peak. Prices are 19.2% below their 10-year trend line.
Arizona price trend & forecast
Cities in Arizona ranked by buy-timing score
| City | Typical value | 1Y change | 5Y CAGR | 12M outlook | Signal | Buy-timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Tan Valley | $392K | -2.4% | -0.3% | -1.1% | ACCUMULATE | 77/100 |
| El Mirage | $338K | -1.5% | +1.1% | -0.9% | ACCUMULATE | 76/100 |
| Green Valley | $277K | -2.2% | +1.4% | -0.7% | ACCUMULATE | 76/100 |
| Sedona | $905K | +0.9% | +3.2% | +0.7% | ACCUMULATE | 76/100 |
| Tolleson | $390K | -1.6% | +2.1% | -0.6% | ACCUMULATE | 75/100 |
| Sun City West | $375K | -1.3% | +0.4% | -0.5% | ACCUMULATE | 75/100 |
| Avondale | $394K | -1.1% | +0.8% | -0.8% | ACCUMULATE | 74/100 |
| Queen Creek | $629K | +0.2% | +2.1% | -0.1% | ACCUMULATE | 74/100 |
| Casa Grande | $315K | -1.6% | +0.7% | -1.3% | ACCUMULATE | 74/100 |
| Phoenix | $406K | -1.1% | +1.2% | -0.5% | ACCUMULATE | 73/100 |
| Apache Junction | $370K | -1.9% | +1.2% | -1.1% | ACCUMULATE | 73/100 |
| Florence | $326K | -2.4% | +0.3% | -1.7% | ACCUMULATE | 73/100 |
| Surprise | $415K | -1.7% | +0.3% | -1.0% | ACCUMULATE | 72/100 |
| Mesa | $430K | -0.7% | +1.4% | -0.7% | ACCUMULATE | 71/100 |
| Chandler | $515K | -1.1% | +1.3% | -0.6% | ACCUMULATE | 71/100 |
| Gilbert | $567K | -0.1% | +1.7% | -0.4% | ACCUMULATE | 71/100 |
| Glendale | $402K | -1.1% | +1.2% | -1.0% | ACCUMULATE | 71/100 |
| Scottsdale | $855K | +3.6% | +3.8% | +0.9% | ACCUMULATE | 71/100 |
| Peoria | $480K | -0.7% | +1.3% | -0.8% | ACCUMULATE | 70/100 |
| Oro Valley | $501K | -0.7% | +2.5% | +0.4% | ACCUMULATE | 70/100 |
| Tempe | $462K | -0.3% | +1.6% | -0.5% | ACCUMULATE | 69/100 |
| Goodyear | $462K | -0.9% | +1.0% | -1.0% | ACCUMULATE | 69/100 |
| Prescott | $599K | -0.3% | +2.2% | -0.1% | ACCUMULATE | 69/100 |
| Marana | $417K | -1.2% | +2.0% | -0.4% | ACCUMULATE | 69/100 |
| Tucson | $321K | -1.7% | +1.8% | -0.9% | ACCUMULATE | 68/100 |
| Prescott Valley | $458K | -0.1% | +1.9% | -0.3% | ACCUMULATE | 68/100 |
| Sahuarita | $348K | -1.8% | +1.5% | -0.9% | ACCUMULATE | 68/100 |
| Litchfield Park | $515K | -0.0% | +1.7% | -0.8% | ACCUMULATE | 68/100 |
| Fountain Hills | $663K | +1.3% | +2.9% | +0.2% | ACCUMULATE | 68/100 |
| Anthem | $558K | -0.9% | +1.6% | -1.1% | ACCUMULATE | 68/100 |
| Show Low | $438K | +0.9% | +3.3% | -0.4% | ACCUMULATE | 68/100 |
| Flagstaff | $661K | +0.7% | +4.3% | +1.1% | ACCUMULATE | 67/100 |
| San Luis | $239K | +1.7% | +5.2% | -0.1% | ACCUMULATE | 67/100 |
| Yuma | $296K | +0.1% | +4.5% | -0.4% | ACCUMULATE | 65/100 |
| Kingman | $274K | +1.9% | +2.3% | -0.8% | ACCUMULATE | 64/100 |
| Sierra Vista | $302K | +0.2% | +3.2% | -0.3% | ACCUMULATE | 61/100 |
| Buckeye | $390K | -1.9% | +0.6% | -1.4% | WAIT | 60/100 |
| Maricopa | $340K | -3.5% | -1.0% | -1.7% | WAIT | 60/100 |
| Cottonwood | $389K | -0.3% | +2.6% | -1.6% | WAIT | 60/100 |
| Payson | $444K | -0.5% | +2.4% | -0.8% | WAIT | 60/100 |
| Eloy | $269K | -2.5% | +0.4% | -1.8% | WAIT | 60/100 |
| Rio Rico | $269K | -0.1% | +3.2% | -1.4% | WAIT | 60/100 |
| Somerton | $269K | +1.9% | +5.4% | -1.3% | WAIT | 59/100 |
| Nogales | $221K | +0.3% | +3.4% | -1.2% | WAIT | 58/100 |
| Douglas | $174K | +0.2% | +0.7% | -1.4% | WAIT | 55/100 |
Frequently asked questions
Is now a good time to buy a home in Arizona?
As of Aug 2026, our buy-timing signal for Arizona is ACCUMULATE — prices are near fair value with a modest expected change (-0.6% over 12 months). Buy opportunistically and negotiate on price. Seasonally, prices tend to be softest around Jan 2027. Buy-timing score: 71/100.
Will home prices in Arizona go down in 2027?
The model projects -0.6% over the next 12 months: about $416K by Aug 2027, with an 80% range of $405K–$426K (today $418K). Forecasts are statistical and can be wrong — rates, supply and local events matter.
What is the average home price in Arizona?
The typical (mid-tier) home value in Arizona is $418K as of Aug 2026, -0.9% year over year.
What is the cheapest time of year to buy in Arizona?
Historically, prices in Arizona run lowest in January, about 0.9% below the annual average, and highest in July.
Which areas in Arizona have the best buy-timing right now?
Highest buy-timing scores: San Tan Valley (77/100, ACCUMULATE), El Mirage (76/100, ACCUMULATE) and Green Valley (76/100, ACCUMULATE). Fastest-rising prices: Scottsdale (+3.6%), Kingman (+1.9%) and Somerton (+1.9%).
Other states
Source & method
Data: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) — all homes, mid-tier, raw monthly, monthly, latest Aug 2026. Page regenerated 2026-10-08 22:04 PDT. Signals combine valuation vs the long-run trend, momentum and a damped-trend forecast with seasonal adjustment; the “best price window” is the lowest point of the projected path. BUY = prices projected to rise and not stretched; ACCUMULATE = near fair value; WAIT = a dip is projected; HOT = running well ahead of trend; CAUTION = stretched with fading momentum.