BrightSpire Capital, Inc. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
BrightSpire Capital, Inc.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 37/100). The main indicators are market-implied default probability >20%, losses in each of the last 3 years and material debt with no ebitda. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 37% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 28.1%. In its favour: operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Merton distance-to-default 0.58 σ → PD 28%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Debt is 72% of assets while EBITDA is not positive.
With no operating earnings, repayment depends entirely on asset sales or fresh capital.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
- Strong current ratio (22.74).
📰 Recent news scan
- BrightSpire Capital, Inc. Announces Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call DatesYahoo Finance · 2026-10-01
- BrightSpire Capital (BRSP) Prices $960 Million Financing Deal. Can Lending Returns Improve?Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-26
- BrightSpire Capital Announces Pricing of $960 Million BRSP 2026-FL4 Commercial Real Estate CLO and the Redemption of BRSP 2024-FL2Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-21
- BrightSpire Capital Announces $0.16 Per Share Dividend for Third Quarter 2026Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-14
- BrightSpire Capital, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsYahoo Finance · 2026-07-28
- BrightSpire Capital, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call DatesYahoo Finance · 2026-07-06
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do BrightSpire Capital, Inc.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, BrightSpire Capital, Inc.'s public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 37/100, driven by market-implied default probability >20%, losses in each of the last 3 years and material debt with no ebitda. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is BrightSpire Capital, Inc.'s financial distress score?
37/100 ('Watch'). Ohlson O-score -0.54 (model 1-year failure probability 37%). Merton distance-to-default 0.58 σ (model default probability 28.1%).
What works in BrightSpire Capital, Inc.'s favour?
Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months. Strong current ratio (22.74).
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other Real Estate Cos & REITs companies with distress indicators
- American Strategic Investment Co. (NYC)Very weak 100/100
- RenX Enterprises Corp. (RENX)Very weak 100/100
- Change Agents Corporation (CHGA)Very weak 99/100
- EUDA Health Holdings Limited (EUDA)Very weak 97/100
- Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc. (AHT)Very weak 93/100
- Murano Global Investments Plc (MRNO)Very weak 88/100
All Real Estate Cos & REITs companies with distress indicators →
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.