Change Agents Corporation — financial distress indicators

Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) is -7.28×.

When EBIT < interest, debt service is funded from cash reserves or new borrowing — the classic precursor to payment default and covenant breach.

At the current free-cash-flow burn, cash covers ~2 months.

Going-concern standard: management must assess ability to continue for 12 months (ASC 205-40). Runway below that horizon forces dilution, asset sales or default.

Merton distance-to-default -0.21 σ → PD 58%.

Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.

Current ratio is 0.38 (current assets cover 38% of near-term obligations).

Cash-flow insolvency test: inability to pay debts as they fall due is the trigger for both U.S. involuntary petitions and Indian IBC default.

Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.

Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.

Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years.

A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.

Price is -96% from its 52-week high.

Equity markets price distress early; collapses of this size usually reflect fear of wipe-out in a restructuring.

O-score 6.05 → model probability 100%.

Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.

Share count up +236% in a year.

Survival financing: repeated equity raises at depressed prices.