Oil Country Tubular Limited — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Oil Country Tubular Limited's reported numbers place it in the 'Very weak' financial-health band (distress score 74/100). The main indicators are operating profit does not cover interest, cash runway under 12 months and losses in each of the last 3 years. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 72% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 0.0%. In its favour: strong current ratio (3.67).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) is -80.12×.
When EBIT < interest, debt service is funded from cash reserves or new borrowing — the classic precursor to payment default and covenant breach.
At the current free-cash-flow burn, cash covers ~10 months.
Going-concern standard: management must assess ability to continue for 12 months (Ind AS 1 ¶25–26). Runway below that horizon forces dilution, asset sales or default.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Revenue changed -43% year over year.
A >30% sales drop typically breaches leverage covenants and starves fixed-cost coverage.
Operating cash flow negative in 2 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
O-score 0.96 → model probability 72%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Strong current ratio (3.67).
- High insider/promoter ownership (72%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- Oil Country Tubular Ltd. (OILCOUNTUB) Share Price Near 52-Week High as Stock Trades at Rs 80.50 - UnivestGoogle News · 2026-10-06
- Oil Country Tubular OILCOUNTUB Reg 74(5) Depository Certificate Q2 FY27 - Kalkine IndiaGoogle News · 2026-10-05
- Oil Country Tubular Ltd. Upper Circuit Today: Price, Data and Peers - UnivestGoogle News · 2026-10-05
- OILCOUNTUB Q2 2026 Earnings: Loss of ₹12.01 Per Share as Revenue Falls 42.97% YoY, Stock Still Gains 2% - https://www.siam.in/Google News · 2026-09-30
⚖️ Indian legal pathway — the IBC, 2016
How insolvency starts
- A financial creditor (§7), an operational creditor after a demand notice (§§8–9) or the company itself (§10) can apply to the NCLT once a default of at least ₹1 crore occurs (§4).
- On admission a moratorium (§14) stops suits and recovery; the board is suspended and an insolvency professional runs the company.
- The Committee of Creditors approves a resolution plan with 66% of voting share (§30(4)) within an outer limit of 330 days (§12); otherwise liquidation (§33) under the §53 waterfall — equity ranks last. Defaulting promoters are generally barred from bidding (§29A).
Earlier warning stages
- RBI's Prudential Framework for Resolution of Stressed Assets (7 June 2019): lenders must review a borrower within 30 days of default and implement a resolution plan, or provide more.
- Listed companies must disclose loan defaults to exchanges under SEBI (LODR); a rating downgrade to “D” is a public signal.
- Auditors must report going-concern uncertainty (SA 570 / Ind AS 1).
Frequently asked questions
What do Oil Country Tubular Limited's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-09, Oil Country Tubular Limited's public financial data places it in the 'Very weak' band with a distress score of 74/100, driven by operating profit does not cover interest, cash runway under 12 months and losses in each of the last 3 years. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Oil Country Tubular Limited's financial distress score?
74/100 ('Very weak'). Ohlson O-score 0.96 (model 1-year failure probability 72%). Merton distance-to-default 5.72 σ (model default probability 0.0%).
What works in Oil Country Tubular Limited's favour?
Strong current ratio (3.67). High insider/promoter ownership (72%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
Under the IBC the Committee of Creditors controls the resolution; the §53 waterfall pays secured creditors and workers first and equity last. In most resolution plans existing shareholders are wiped out or left with a token stake, and the company may be delisted.
Other Energy, Oil & Gas companies with distress indicators
- Aban Offshore Limited (ABAN)Very weak 95/100
- Prabha Energy Limited (PRABHA)Weak 56/100
- Anmol India Limited (ANMOL)Watch 35/100
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.