Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited's reported numbers place it in the 'Weak' financial-health band (distress score 51/100). The main indicators are severe working-capital shortfall, very high leverage and massive shareholder dilution. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 66% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 0.0%. In its favour: operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Current ratio is 0.56 (current assets cover 56% of near-term obligations).
Cash-flow insolvency test: inability to pay debts as they fall due is the trigger for both U.S. involuntary petitions and Indian IBC default.
Total debt is 9.5× EBITDA.
Debt above ~6× EBITDA is deep sub-investment-grade territory; refinancing becomes difficult when rates or earnings move against the company.
Share count up +86% in a year.
Survival financing: repeated equity raises at depressed prices.
Recurring net losses.
Repeated losses are a core input in both Ohlson and Altman failure models.
Short-term debt is 4.4× cash on hand.
Maturity wall: debt due within a year must be refinanced, which is the most common proximate cause of filings.
Revenue declined every year for three years.
Structural, not cyclical, decline.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
- High insider/promoter ownership (62%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- BAJAJHIND Q2 2026 Earnings: Profitability Sustained at ₹0.86 EPS Despite 2.12% Revenue Dip - Buyback Announcement Report - https://www.siam.in/Google News · 2026-09-22
- Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Share Price Today: 5.39% Decline - UnivestGoogle News · 2026-09-15
- Trending Stocks: PCJ, Kwality Wall’s Rally; Bajaj Sugar Falls - HDFC SkyGoogle News · 2026-08-21
- Sugar stocks Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar, Balrampur Chini, others rally up to 8% even as govt tightens stock li - The Economic TimesGoogle News · 2026-08-20
- Bajaj Hind, Dwarikesh, Renuka rally up to 14%; what's driving sugar stocks? - Business StandardGoogle News · 2026-08-19
- We Think That There Are Some Issues For Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar (NSE:BAJAJHIND) Beyond Its Promising Earnings - Simply Wall StreetGoogle News · 2026-06-06
⚖️ Indian legal pathway — the IBC, 2016
How insolvency starts
- A financial creditor (§7), an operational creditor after a demand notice (§§8–9) or the company itself (§10) can apply to the NCLT once a default of at least ₹1 crore occurs (§4).
- On admission a moratorium (§14) stops suits and recovery; the board is suspended and an insolvency professional runs the company.
- The Committee of Creditors approves a resolution plan with 66% of voting share (§30(4)) within an outer limit of 330 days (§12); otherwise liquidation (§33) under the §53 waterfall — equity ranks last. Defaulting promoters are generally barred from bidding (§29A).
Earlier warning stages
- RBI's Prudential Framework for Resolution of Stressed Assets (7 June 2019): lenders must review a borrower within 30 days of default and implement a resolution plan, or provide more.
- Listed companies must disclose loan defaults to exchanges under SEBI (LODR); a rating downgrade to “D” is a public signal.
- Auditors must report going-concern uncertainty (SA 570 / Ind AS 1).
Frequently asked questions
What do Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-09, Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited's public financial data places it in the 'Weak' band with a distress score of 51/100, driven by severe working-capital shortfall, very high leverage and massive shareholder dilution. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited's financial distress score?
51/100 ('Weak'). Ohlson O-score 0.64 (model 1-year failure probability 66%). Merton distance-to-default 3.6 σ (model default probability 0.0%).
What works in Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited's favour?
Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months. High insider/promoter ownership (62%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
Under the IBC the Committee of Creditors controls the resolution; the §53 waterfall pays secured creditors and workers first and equity last. In most resolution plans existing shareholders are wiped out or left with a token stake, and the company may be delisted.
Other Consumer Staples companies with distress indicators
- MT Educare Limited (MTEDUCARE)Very weak 100/100
- Shree Rama Newsprint Limited (RAMANEWS)Very weak 100/100
- Shree Renuka Sugars Limited (RENUKA)Very weak 100/100
- Simbhaoli Sugars Limited (SIMBHALS)Very weak 100/100
- Shanti Overseas (India) Limited (SHANTI)Very weak 94/100
- Vishwaraj Sugar Industries Limited (VISHWARAJ)Very weak 90/100
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.