Townsquare Media, Inc. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Townsquare Media, Inc.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Very weak' financial-health band (distress score 94/100). The main indicators are liabilities exceed assets (negative equity), market-implied default probability >20% and losses in each of the last 3 years. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 87% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 57.5%. In its favour: operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Total liabilities are 1.07× total assets.
Balance-sheet insolvency test: debts exceeding the fair value of assets is the statutory definition of 'insolvent' in 11 U.S.C. §101(32).
Merton distance-to-default -0.19 σ → PD 57%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Interest coverage is only 1.23× (lenders typically require ≥ 2–3×).
Low coverage leaves little buffer against a profit dip before a debt-service or covenant breach.
Total debt is 9.5× EBITDA.
Debt above ~6× EBITDA is deep sub-investment-grade territory; refinancing becomes difficult when rates or earnings move against the company.
O-score 1.93 → model probability 87%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Current ratio is 0.83.
Short-term obligations exceed short-term resources — the company relies on rolling over credit.
Short-term debt is 28.2× cash on hand.
Maturity wall: debt due within a year must be refinanced, which is the most common proximate cause of filings.
Revenue declined every year for three years.
Structural, not cyclical, decline.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
📰 Recent news scan
- Townsquare and Lakes Media Network Announce Digital Advertising Partnership Serving Virginia and North CarolinaYahoo Finance · 2026-10-01
- Townsquare Announces Conference Call To Discuss Third Quarter 2026 ResultsYahoo Finance · 2026-09-30
- Michael Dell's Top Second Quarter 2026 Move: Townsquare Media Inc at a -0.69% Portfolio ImpactYahoo Finance · 2026-08-15
- Townsquare Media (TSQ) Q2 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptYahoo Finance · 2026-08-13
- Townsquare Media Inc (TSQ) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Digital Advertising Accelerates ...Yahoo Finance · 2026-08-06
- Townsquare Media (TSQ) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Surpass EstimatesYahoo Finance · 2026-08-06
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do Townsquare Media, Inc.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, Townsquare Media, Inc.'s public financial data places it in the 'Very weak' band with a distress score of 94/100, driven by liabilities exceed assets (negative equity), market-implied default probability >20% and losses in each of the last 3 years. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Townsquare Media, Inc.'s financial distress score?
94/100 ('Very weak'). Ohlson O-score 1.93 (model 1-year failure probability 87%). Merton distance-to-default -0.19 σ (model default probability 57.5%).
What works in Townsquare Media, Inc.'s favour?
Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other Telecom & Media companies with distress indicators
- FreeCast, Inc. (CAST)Very weak 100/100
- Direct Digital Holdings, Inc. (DRCT)Very weak 100/100
- K Wave Media Ltd. (KWM)Very weak 100/100
- Reading International, Inc. (RDIB)Very weak 100/100
- SurgePays, Inc. (SURG)Very weak 100/100
- Upexi, Inc. (UPXI)Very weak 100/100
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.