Upexi, Inc. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Upexi, Inc.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Very weak' financial-health band (distress score 100/100). The main indicators are liabilities exceed assets (negative equity), cash runway under 12 months and market-implied default probability >20%. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 96% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 79.9%. In its favour: strong current ratio (1.72).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Total liabilities are 1.26× total assets.
Balance-sheet insolvency test: debts exceeding the fair value of assets is the statutory definition of 'insolvent' in 11 U.S.C. §101(32).
At the current free-cash-flow burn, cash covers ~2 months.
Going-concern standard: management must assess ability to continue for 12 months (ASC 205-40). Runway below that horizon forces dilution, asset sales or default.
Merton distance-to-default -0.84 σ → PD 80%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Revenue changed -39% year over year.
A >30% sales drop typically breaches leverage covenants and starves fixed-cost coverage.
Operating cash flow negative in 2 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
Price is -86% from its 52-week high.
Equity markets price distress early; collapses of this size usually reflect fear of wipe-out in a restructuring.
O-score 3.27 → model probability 96%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Share count up +3561% in a year.
Survival financing: repeated equity raises at depressed prices.
Operating margin fell from -23% to -81% in two years.
Sharp margin compression signals loss of pricing power or cost control.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Strong current ratio (1.72).
📰 Recent news scan
- Upexi (UPXI) Q4 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptYahoo Finance · 2026-09-18
- Upexi Inc (UPXI) (Q4 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Massive Solana Treasury Fuels $246 Million ...Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-18
- Upexi, Inc. Q4 2026 Earnings Call SummaryYahoo Finance · 2026-09-18
- Upexi Q4 Earnings Call HighlightsYahoo Finance · 2026-09-17
- SOL Strategies: Darklake & Houdini Add Middleware Monetization, Staking Scale Nears 768k SOL – Quarterly Update ReportYahoo Finance · 2026-05-20
- Upexi, Inc. Q3 2026 Earnings Call SummaryYahoo Finance · 2026-05-15
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do Upexi, Inc.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, Upexi, Inc.'s public financial data places it in the 'Very weak' band with a distress score of 100/100, driven by liabilities exceed assets (negative equity), cash runway under 12 months and market-implied default probability >20%. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Upexi, Inc.'s financial distress score?
100/100 ('Very weak'). Ohlson O-score 3.27 (model 1-year failure probability 96%). Merton distance-to-default -0.84 σ (model default probability 79.9%).
What works in Upexi, Inc.'s favour?
Strong current ratio (1.72).
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other Telecom & Media companies with distress indicators
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- Reading International, Inc. (RDIB)Very weak 100/100
- SurgePays, Inc. (SURG)Very weak 100/100
- Beasley Broadcast Group, Inc. (BBGI)Very weak 99/100
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.