Trilogy Metals Inc. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Trilogy Metals Inc.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 38/100). The main indicators are losses in each of the last 3 years, operations consume cash and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 60% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 0.0%. In its favour: cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
O-score 0.39 → model probability 60%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Price is -73% from its 52-week high.
For financial firms a share-price run often precedes a deposit or funding run (confidence channel).
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
📰 Recent news scan
- Critical Minerals Wrap: ELMT Lands $450M Govt Investment; CRML, USAR, TMQ Stocks In Focus Ahead Of Trump-Xi Meet - StocktwitsGoogle News · 2026-10-08
- TMQ Oct 2026 1.000 put (TMQ261016P00001000) stock price, news, quote and history - Yahoo Finance UKGoogle News · 2026-10-07
- The U.S. government put about $17.8 million into Trilogy Metals to fund its Alaska joint venture. - Stock TitanGoogle News · 2026-10-02
- Trilogy Metals Reports $0.2 Million Fiscal Q3 Net Income - Quiver QuantitativeGoogle News · 2026-10-02
- Trilogy Metals Provides an Update on the Strategic Equity Investment by the U.S. Department of War - Trilogy MetalsGoogle News · 2026-08-03
- Trilogy Metals Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results and Provides Update on Federal Permitting Progress and Project Advancement - PR NewswireGoogle News · 2026-07-08
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do Trilogy Metals Inc.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, Trilogy Metals Inc.'s public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 38/100, driven by losses in each of the last 3 years, operations consume cash and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Trilogy Metals Inc.'s financial distress score?
38/100 ('Watch'). Ohlson O-score 0.39 (model 1-year failure probability 60%). Merton distance-to-default 5.79 σ (model default probability 0.0%).
What works in Trilogy Metals Inc.'s favour?
Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.