BGL — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
BGL's reported numbers place it in the 'Very weak' financial-health band (distress score 98/100). The main indicators are liabilities exceed assets (negative equity), cash runway under 12 months and market-implied default probability >20%. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 100% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 47.1%. In its favour: high insider/promoter ownership (37%) aligns management with survival.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Total liabilities are 1.53× total assets.
Balance-sheet insolvency test: debts exceeding the fair value of assets is the statutory definition of 'insolvent' in 11 U.S.C. §101(32).
At the current free-cash-flow burn, cash covers ~1 months.
Going-concern standard: management must assess ability to continue for 12 months (ASC 205-40). Runway below that horizon forces dilution, asset sales or default.
Merton distance-to-default 0.07 σ → PD 47%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Current ratio is 0.19 (current assets cover 19% of near-term obligations).
Cash-flow insolvency test: inability to pay debts as they fall due is the trigger for both U.S. involuntary petitions and Indian IBC default.
Operating cash flow negative in 2 of the last 2 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
Price is -98% from its 52-week high.
Equity markets price distress early; collapses of this size usually reflect fear of wipe-out in a restructuring.
O-score 8.44 → model probability 100%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Recurring net losses.
Repeated losses are a core input in both Ohlson and Altman failure models.
Last price $0.18.
Below the $1 minimum-bid listing standard (Nasdaq Rule 5550(a)(2) / NYSE 802.01C); sustained breach leads to delisting and loss of capital-market access.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- High insider/promoter ownership (37%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- Blue Gold Limited Reports Earnings Results for the Half Year Ended June 30, 2026 - www.marketscreener.comGoogle News · 2026-10-08
- Bellevue Gold (CHIA:BGL) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions - Simply Wall StreetGoogle News · 2026-10-04
- A gold miner will review its assets, financing and operations - Stock TitanGoogle News · 2026-09-22
- Blue Gold Limited Receives Nasdaq Notice of Non-Compliance With Bid Price and Market Value Listing Requirements - Quiver QuantitativeGoogle News · 2026-07-08
- Blue Gold’s Growth Opportunities Supports Near-Term Price Target of $10.00 - Yahoo FinanceGoogle News · 2026-06-10
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do BGL's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, BGL's public financial data places it in the 'Very weak' band with a distress score of 98/100, driven by liabilities exceed assets (negative equity), cash runway under 12 months and market-implied default probability >20%. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is BGL's financial distress score?
98/100 ('Very weak'). Ohlson O-score 8.44 (model 1-year failure probability 100%). Merton distance-to-default 0.07 σ (model default probability 47.1%).
What works in BGL's favour?
High insider/promoter ownership (37%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other Metals, Mining & Chemicals companies with distress indicators
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- Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. (OMEX)Very weak 100/100
- Electra Battery Materials Corporation (ELBM)Very weak 88/100
- Bioceres Crop Solutions Corp. (BIOX)Very weak 87/100
- Sigma Lithium Corporation (SGML)Very weak 83/100
All Metals, Mining & Chemicals companies with distress indicators →
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.