newcleo plc — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
newcleo plc's reported numbers place it in the 'Weak' financial-health band (distress score 51/100). The main indicators are cash runway under 12 months, operations consume cash and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 76% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 0.0%. In its favour: cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
At the current free-cash-flow burn, cash covers ~8 months.
Going-concern standard: management must assess ability to continue for 12 months (ASC 205-40). Runway below that horizon forces dilution, asset sales or default.
Operating cash flow negative in 2 of the last 2 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
O-score 1.17 → model probability 76%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Recurring net losses.
Repeated losses are a core input in both Ohlson and Altman failure models.
Revenue changed -30% year over year.
Falling sales reduce cash available for debt service.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
- Strong current ratio (2.49).
📰 Recent news scan
- newcleo plc Reports First Half 2026 Financial and Operational ResultsYahoo Finance · 2026-10-02
- Former U.S. NRC Commissioner and U.S. DOE Nuclear Chief William D. Magwood, IV to Join newcleo’s Board of Directors in January 2027Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-30
- Rütschi celebrates 80 years of industrial expertise rooted in Alsace, serving the French and international nuclear industryYahoo Finance · 2026-09-25
- Newcleo (NWCL) Following Nasdaq Inclusion And Fresh Funding, Does The Valuation Hold UpYahoo Finance · 2026-09-24
- newcleo Begins Trading on Nasdaq Under Symbol "NWCL"Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-22
- newcleo Completes Business Combination, Raises $247 Million and Will Start Trading on Nasdaq Under Ticker Symbol “NWCL” on September 22, 2026Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-21
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do newcleo plc's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, newcleo plc's public financial data places it in the 'Weak' band with a distress score of 51/100, driven by cash runway under 12 months, operations consume cash and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is newcleo plc's financial distress score?
51/100 ('Weak'). Ohlson O-score 1.17 (model 1-year failure probability 76%). Merton distance-to-default 18.38 σ (model default probability 0.0%).
What works in newcleo plc's favour?
Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet). Strong current ratio (2.49).
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.