Jewett-Cameron Trading Company Ltd. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Jewett-Cameron Trading Company Ltd.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 38/100). The main indicators are cash runway under 12 months, ohlson o-score signals likely failure and losses in 2 of the last 3 years. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 95% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 0.0%. In its favour: strong current ratio (4.22).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
At the current free-cash-flow burn, cash covers ~2 months.
Going-concern standard: management must assess ability to continue for 12 months (ASC 205-40). Runway below that horizon forces dilution, asset sales or default.
O-score 2.91 → model probability 95%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Recurring net losses.
Repeated losses are a core input in both Ohlson and Altman failure models.
Revenue declined every year for three years.
Structural, not cyclical, decline.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Strong current ratio (4.22).
📰 Recent news scan
- AJB Investment Fund II, LP Files Early Warning Report in Relation to Acquisition of Common Shares of Jewett-Cameron Trading Co Ltd.Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-15
- Jewett-Cameron Trading Co Ltd (JCTC) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges ...Yahoo Finance · 2026-07-15
- Jewett-Cameron Reports Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Operational and Financial ResultsYahoo Finance · 2026-07-14
- Jewett-Cameron (JCTC) Q1 2026 Earnings TranscriptYahoo Finance · 2026-04-14
- Jewett-Cameron Trading Co Ltd (JCTC) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Revenue Growth Amidst ...Yahoo Finance · 2026-04-14
- Jewett-Cameron Reports Fiscal 2026 Second Quarter Operational and Financial ResultsYahoo Finance · 2026-04-13
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do Jewett-Cameron Trading Company Ltd.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, Jewett-Cameron Trading Company Ltd.'s public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 38/100, driven by cash runway under 12 months, ohlson o-score signals likely failure and losses in 2 of the last 3 years. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Jewett-Cameron Trading Company Ltd.'s financial distress score?
38/100 ('Watch'). Ohlson O-score 2.91 (model 1-year failure probability 95%). Merton distance-to-default 4.21 σ (model default probability 0.0%).
What works in Jewett-Cameron Trading Company Ltd.'s favour?
Strong current ratio (4.22).
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.