Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation's reported numbers place it in the 'Weak' financial-health band (distress score 50/100). The main indicators are losses in each of the last 3 years, revenue collapse and operations consume cash. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 73% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 0.0%. In its favour: cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Revenue changed -100% year over year.
A >30% sales drop typically breaches leverage covenants and starves fixed-cost coverage.
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
O-score 1.00 → model probability 73%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Price is -67% from its 52-week high.
For financial firms a share-price run often precedes a deposit or funding run (confidence channel).
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
- Strong current ratio (39.21).
- High insider/promoter ownership (33%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- HYMC Feb 2027 13.000 call (HYMC270219C00013000) stock price, news, quote and history - Yahoo Finance SingaporeGoogle News · 2026-10-08
- Behavioral Patterns of HYMC and Institutional Flows - Stock Traders DailyGoogle News · 2026-10-08
- Hycroft Mining: More Paths To Production, But Risk Remains High (NASDAQ:HYMC) - Seeking AlphaGoogle News · 2026-10-07
- symbol__ Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNNGoogle News · 2026-10-06
- HYMC News | HYCROFT MINING HOLDING CO-A (NASDAQ:HYMC) - ChartMillGoogle News · 2026-09-29
- A Hycroft Drill Hole Hits 748 Grams of Silver per Tonne Over 4.2 Meters - Stock TitanGoogle News · 2026-08-18
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation's public financial data places it in the 'Weak' band with a distress score of 50/100, driven by losses in each of the last 3 years, revenue collapse and operations consume cash. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation's financial distress score?
50/100 ('Weak'). Ohlson O-score 1.0 (model 1-year failure probability 73%). Merton distance-to-default 10.74 σ (model default probability 0.0%).
What works in Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation's favour?
Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet). Strong current ratio (39.21). High insider/promoter ownership (33%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.