GPGI, Inc. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
GPGI, Inc.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 46/100). The main indicators are cash runway under 12 months, revenue collapse and losses in 2 of the last 3 years.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
At the current free-cash-flow burn, cash covers ~4 months.
Going-concern standard: management must assess ability to continue for 12 months (ASC 205-40). Runway below that horizon forces dilution, asset sales or default.
Revenue changed -86% year over year.
A >30% sales drop typically breaches leverage covenants and starves fixed-cost coverage.
Recurring net losses.
Repeated losses are a core input in both Ohlson and Altman failure models.
Share count up +27% in a year.
Large issuance usually funds operating losses rather than growth.
Operating margin fell from 30% to -23% in two years.
Sharp margin compression signals loss of pricing power or cost control.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- No material mitigating factors found in the available data.
📰 Recent news scan
- How CompoSecure’s New London Design Hub Could Shape GPGI (GPGI) Investors’ Global Expansion ThesisYahoo Finance · 2026-10-08
- Zacks Industry Outlook Grupo Cibest, POSCO, Griffon and GPGIYahoo Finance · 2026-09-16
- Is GPGI (GPGI) Cheap After Lawsuits And Lower 2026 Guidance?Yahoo Finance · 2026-08-28
- GPGI (GPGI) Q2 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptYahoo Finance · 2026-08-13
- GPGI Reports Second Quarter 2026 ResultsYahoo Finance · 2026-08-06
- GPGI Announces Date of Second Quarter 2026 Earnings CallYahoo Finance · 2026-07-23
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do GPGI, Inc.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, GPGI, Inc.'s public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 46/100, driven by cash runway under 12 months, revenue collapse and losses in 2 of the last 3 years. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is GPGI, Inc.'s financial distress score?
46/100 ('Watch').
What works in GPGI, Inc.'s favour?
No material mitigating factors were found in the available data.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.