Vishnu Prakash R Punglia Limited — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Vishnu Prakash R Punglia Limited's reported numbers place it in the 'Very weak' financial-health band (distress score 83/100). The main indicators are operating profit does not cover interest, market-implied default probability >20% and revenue collapse. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 82% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 82.4%. In its favour: operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) is -1.40×.
When EBIT < interest, debt service is funded from cash reserves or new borrowing — the classic precursor to payment default and covenant breach.
Merton distance-to-default -0.93 σ → PD 82%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Revenue changed -31% year over year.
A >30% sales drop typically breaches leverage covenants and starves fixed-cost coverage.
Debt is 35% of assets while EBITDA is not positive.
With no operating earnings, repayment depends entirely on asset sales or fresh capital.
Operating cash flow negative in 2 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
O-score 1.49 → model probability 82%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Price is -72% from its 52-week high.
For financial firms a share-price run often precedes a deposit or funding run (confidence channel).
Operating margin fell from 14% to -12% in two years.
Sharp margin compression signals loss of pricing power or cost control.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
- High insider/promoter ownership (32%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- VPRPL cites one-time costs for FY26 loss - scanx.tradeGoogle News · 2026-10-04
- Vishnu (VPRPL.NS) Outlook: Rises 2.60% to ₹33.56 in the Latest Session; the Session Ends Within the Reported Technical Boundaries - Dip Buy Trade - siam.inGoogle News · 2026-08-24
- VPRPL Forecast — Price Target — Prediction for 2027 - TradingViewGoogle News · 2026-06-25
- Vishnu Prakash R Punglia (NSEI:VPRPL) Stock Price - Simply Wall StreetGoogle News · 2026-06-07
- VPRPL posts ₹151.77 cr Q4 loss; stock hits lower circuit - BusinessLineGoogle News · 2026-06-02
- VPRPL Reports ₹130 Cr Q4 Net Loss as Revenue Slumps 75% YoY - SahiGoogle News · 2026-05-30
⚖️ Indian legal pathway — the IBC, 2016
How insolvency starts
- A financial creditor (§7), an operational creditor after a demand notice (§§8–9) or the company itself (§10) can apply to the NCLT once a default of at least ₹1 crore occurs (§4).
- On admission a moratorium (§14) stops suits and recovery; the board is suspended and an insolvency professional runs the company.
- The Committee of Creditors approves a resolution plan with 66% of voting share (§30(4)) within an outer limit of 330 days (§12); otherwise liquidation (§33) under the §53 waterfall — equity ranks last. Defaulting promoters are generally barred from bidding (§29A).
Earlier warning stages
- RBI's Prudential Framework for Resolution of Stressed Assets (7 June 2019): lenders must review a borrower within 30 days of default and implement a resolution plan, or provide more.
- Listed companies must disclose loan defaults to exchanges under SEBI (LODR); a rating downgrade to “D” is a public signal.
- Auditors must report going-concern uncertainty (SA 570 / Ind AS 1).
Frequently asked questions
What do Vishnu Prakash R Punglia Limited's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-09, Vishnu Prakash R Punglia Limited's public financial data places it in the 'Very weak' band with a distress score of 83/100, driven by operating profit does not cover interest, market-implied default probability >20% and revenue collapse. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Vishnu Prakash R Punglia Limited's financial distress score?
83/100 ('Very weak'). Ohlson O-score 1.49 (model 1-year failure probability 82%). Merton distance-to-default -0.93 σ (model default probability 82.4%).
What works in Vishnu Prakash R Punglia Limited's favour?
Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months. High insider/promoter ownership (32%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
Under the IBC the Committee of Creditors controls the resolution; the §53 waterfall pays secured creditors and workers first and equity last. In most resolution plans existing shareholders are wiped out or left with a token stake, and the company may be delisted.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.