Twamev Construction and Infrastructure Limited — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Twamev Construction and Infrastructure Limited's reported numbers place it in the 'Very weak' financial-health band (distress score 72/100). The main indicators are market-implied default probability >20%, severe working-capital shortfall and very high leverage. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 89% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 83.4%. In its favour: comfortable interest coverage (8.9×).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Merton distance-to-default -0.97 σ → PD 83%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Current ratio is 0.55 (current assets cover 55% of near-term obligations).
Cash-flow insolvency test: inability to pay debts as they fall due is the trigger for both U.S. involuntary petitions and Indian IBC default.
Total debt is 35.9× EBITDA.
Debt above ~6× EBITDA is deep sub-investment-grade territory; refinancing becomes difficult when rates or earnings move against the company.
O-score 2.08 → model probability 89%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Revenue changed -21% year over year.
Falling sales reduce cash available for debt service.
Short-term debt is 94.5× cash on hand.
Maturity wall: debt due within a year must be refinanced, which is the most common proximate cause of filings.
Price is -73% from its 52-week high.
For financial firms a share-price run often precedes a deposit or funding run (confidence channel).
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years. The company is profitable, so this likely reflects working-capital or loan-book growth.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Comfortable interest coverage (8.9×).
- High insider/promoter ownership (83%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- Tantia Constructions Lower Circuit Today: Price, Data and Peers - UnivestGoogle News · 2026-10-08
- The Thal Industrial (KAR:TICL) Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF : (As of Oct. 07, 2026) - GuruFocusGoogle News · 2026-10-07
- Twamev Construction TICL Promoter Share Sale Disclosure - Kalkine IndiaGoogle News · 2026-10-07
- Twamev Construction and Infrastructure (TICL.NS) Climbs 4.90% to ₹8.57, Nears Resistance Zone - Turnaround Stocks - https://www.siam.in/Google News · 2026-10-06
- TICL Stock Price and Chart — PSX:TICL - TradingViewGoogle News · 2026-04-29
⚖️ Indian legal pathway — the IBC, 2016
How insolvency starts
- A financial creditor (§7), an operational creditor after a demand notice (§§8–9) or the company itself (§10) can apply to the NCLT once a default of at least ₹1 crore occurs (§4).
- On admission a moratorium (§14) stops suits and recovery; the board is suspended and an insolvency professional runs the company.
- The Committee of Creditors approves a resolution plan with 66% of voting share (§30(4)) within an outer limit of 330 days (§12); otherwise liquidation (§33) under the §53 waterfall — equity ranks last. Defaulting promoters are generally barred from bidding (§29A).
Earlier warning stages
- RBI's Prudential Framework for Resolution of Stressed Assets (7 June 2019): lenders must review a borrower within 30 days of default and implement a resolution plan, or provide more.
- Listed companies must disclose loan defaults to exchanges under SEBI (LODR); a rating downgrade to “D” is a public signal.
- Auditors must report going-concern uncertainty (SA 570 / Ind AS 1).
Frequently asked questions
What do Twamev Construction and Infrastructure Limited's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-09, Twamev Construction and Infrastructure Limited's public financial data places it in the 'Very weak' band with a distress score of 72/100, driven by market-implied default probability >20%, severe working-capital shortfall and very high leverage. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Twamev Construction and Infrastructure Limited's financial distress score?
72/100 ('Very weak'). Ohlson O-score 2.08 (model 1-year failure probability 89%). Merton distance-to-default -0.97 σ (model default probability 83.4%).
What works in Twamev Construction and Infrastructure Limited's favour?
Comfortable interest coverage (8.9×). High insider/promoter ownership (83%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
Under the IBC the Committee of Creditors controls the resolution; the §53 waterfall pays secured creditors and workers first and equity last. In most resolution plans existing shareholders are wiped out or left with a token stake, and the company may be delisted.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.