Shivam Autotech Limited — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Shivam Autotech Limited's reported numbers place it in the 'Very weak' financial-health band (distress score 91/100). The main indicators are liabilities exceed assets (negative equity), operating profit does not cover interest and market-implied default probability >20%. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 98% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 38.8%. In its favour: operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Total liabilities are 1.09× total assets.
Balance-sheet insolvency test: debts exceeding the fair value of assets is the statutory definition of net-worth erosion; under the Companies Act 2013 it is a recognised sign of financial sickness.
Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) is -0.06×.
When EBIT < interest, debt service is funded from cash reserves or new borrowing — the classic precursor to payment default and covenant breach.
Merton distance-to-default 0.28 σ → PD 39%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Total debt is 12.9× EBITDA.
Debt above ~6× EBITDA is deep sub-investment-grade territory; refinancing becomes difficult when rates or earnings move against the company.
O-score 3.69 → model probability 98%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Current ratio is 0.76.
Short-term obligations exceed short-term resources — the company relies on rolling over credit.
Short-term debt is 5.3× cash on hand.
Maturity wall: debt due within a year must be refinanced, which is the most common proximate cause of filings.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
- High insider/promoter ownership (70%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- Shivam Autotech Share Price Falls 8.47% on Price Action - UnivestGoogle News · 2026-09-21
- Shivam Autotech (SHIVAMAUTO.NS) Surges 27.86% to ₹20.7 as Auto Ancillary Stock Breaks Out - Bullish Sentiment - https://www.siam.in/Google News · 2026-09-20
- Shivam Autotech Share Price and Chart Analysis - Kalkine IndiaGoogle News · 2026-09-18
- Shivam Autotech Ltd. Upper Circuit Today: Price, Data and Peers - UnivestGoogle News · 2026-09-18
⚖️ Indian legal pathway — the IBC, 2016
How insolvency starts
- A financial creditor (§7), an operational creditor after a demand notice (§§8–9) or the company itself (§10) can apply to the NCLT once a default of at least ₹1 crore occurs (§4).
- On admission a moratorium (§14) stops suits and recovery; the board is suspended and an insolvency professional runs the company.
- The Committee of Creditors approves a resolution plan with 66% of voting share (§30(4)) within an outer limit of 330 days (§12); otherwise liquidation (§33) under the §53 waterfall — equity ranks last. Defaulting promoters are generally barred from bidding (§29A).
Earlier warning stages
- RBI's Prudential Framework for Resolution of Stressed Assets (7 June 2019): lenders must review a borrower within 30 days of default and implement a resolution plan, or provide more.
- Listed companies must disclose loan defaults to exchanges under SEBI (LODR); a rating downgrade to “D” is a public signal.
- Auditors must report going-concern uncertainty (SA 570 / Ind AS 1).
Frequently asked questions
What do Shivam Autotech Limited's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-09, Shivam Autotech Limited's public financial data places it in the 'Very weak' band with a distress score of 91/100, driven by liabilities exceed assets (negative equity), operating profit does not cover interest and market-implied default probability >20%. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Shivam Autotech Limited's financial distress score?
91/100 ('Very weak'). Ohlson O-score 3.69 (model 1-year failure probability 98%). Merton distance-to-default 0.28 σ (model default probability 38.8%).
What works in Shivam Autotech Limited's favour?
Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months. High insider/promoter ownership (70%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
Under the IBC the Committee of Creditors controls the resolution; the §53 waterfall pays secured creditors and workers first and equity last. In most resolution plans existing shareholders are wiped out or left with a token stake, and the company may be delisted.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.