Seya Industries Limited — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Seya Industries Limited's reported numbers place it in the 'Very weak' financial-health band (distress score 87/100). The main indicators are cash runway under 12 months, market-implied default probability >20% and severe working-capital shortfall. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 68% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 82.1%. In its favour: high insider/promoter ownership (65%) aligns management with survival.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
At the current free-cash-flow burn, cash covers ~1 months.
Going-concern standard: management must assess ability to continue for 12 months (Ind AS 1 ¶25–26). Runway below that horizon forces dilution, asset sales or default.
Merton distance-to-default -0.92 σ → PD 82%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Current ratio is 0.26 (current assets cover 26% of near-term obligations).
Cash-flow insolvency test: inability to pay debts as they fall due is the trigger for both U.S. involuntary petitions and Indian IBC default.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Total debt is 55.6× EBITDA.
Debt above ~6× EBITDA is deep sub-investment-grade territory; refinancing becomes difficult when rates or earnings move against the company.
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
O-score 0.73 → model probability 68%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Short-term debt is 54.2× cash on hand.
Maturity wall: debt due within a year must be refinanced, which is the most common proximate cause of filings.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- High insider/promoter ownership (65%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- Seya Industries Limited (SEYAIND.NS) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo! Finance CanadaGoogle News · 2026-10-07
⚖️ Indian legal pathway — the IBC, 2016
How insolvency starts
- A financial creditor (§7), an operational creditor after a demand notice (§§8–9) or the company itself (§10) can apply to the NCLT once a default of at least ₹1 crore occurs (§4).
- On admission a moratorium (§14) stops suits and recovery; the board is suspended and an insolvency professional runs the company.
- The Committee of Creditors approves a resolution plan with 66% of voting share (§30(4)) within an outer limit of 330 days (§12); otherwise liquidation (§33) under the §53 waterfall — equity ranks last. Defaulting promoters are generally barred from bidding (§29A).
Earlier warning stages
- RBI's Prudential Framework for Resolution of Stressed Assets (7 June 2019): lenders must review a borrower within 30 days of default and implement a resolution plan, or provide more.
- Listed companies must disclose loan defaults to exchanges under SEBI (LODR); a rating downgrade to “D” is a public signal.
- Auditors must report going-concern uncertainty (SA 570 / Ind AS 1).
Frequently asked questions
What do Seya Industries Limited's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-09, Seya Industries Limited's public financial data places it in the 'Very weak' band with a distress score of 87/100, driven by cash runway under 12 months, market-implied default probability >20% and severe working-capital shortfall. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Seya Industries Limited's financial distress score?
87/100 ('Very weak'). Ohlson O-score 0.73 (model 1-year failure probability 68%). Merton distance-to-default -0.92 σ (model default probability 82.1%).
What works in Seya Industries Limited's favour?
High insider/promoter ownership (65%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
Under the IBC the Committee of Creditors controls the resolution; the §53 waterfall pays secured creditors and workers first and equity last. In most resolution plans existing shareholders are wiped out or left with a token stake, and the company may be delisted.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.