Osia Hyper Retail Limited — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Osia Hyper Retail Limited's reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 35/100). The main indicators are market-implied default probability >20%, share price down >80% from 52-week high and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 64% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 99.8%. In its favour: strong current ratio (3.56).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Merton distance-to-default -2.82 σ → PD 100%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Price is -93% from its 52-week high.
Equity markets price distress early; collapses of this size usually reflect fear of wipe-out in a restructuring.
O-score 0.55 → model probability 64%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Share count up +24% in a year.
Large issuance usually funds operating losses rather than growth.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Strong current ratio (3.56).
- Revenue still growing (+25% YoY).
📰 Recent news scan
- Osia Hyper Retail Q2 2025 Earnings: Revenue Rises 24.7% but Stock Slips 3.48% - Earnings Acceleration Picks - https://www.siam.in/Google News · 2026-09-17
- OSIA Hyper Retail Ltd. Shareholding Pattern – Promoters, FIIs & DIIs - Value ResearchGoogle News · 2026-08-28
- Osia Hyper Retail promoters report no encumbrance in FY26 - scanx.tradeGoogle News · 2026-07-07
- Osia Hyper Retail Share Price Target 2026: Bull Case Rs 5.00, Bea - UnivestGoogle News · 2026-07-03
- Why Did Osia Hyper Retail (NSE: OSIAHYPER) Shares Slip Despite Recent Recovery? - Kalkine IndiaGoogle News · 2026-05-07
⚖️ Indian legal pathway — the IBC, 2016
How insolvency starts
- A financial creditor (§7), an operational creditor after a demand notice (§§8–9) or the company itself (§10) can apply to the NCLT once a default of at least ₹1 crore occurs (§4).
- On admission a moratorium (§14) stops suits and recovery; the board is suspended and an insolvency professional runs the company.
- The Committee of Creditors approves a resolution plan with 66% of voting share (§30(4)) within an outer limit of 330 days (§12); otherwise liquidation (§33) under the §53 waterfall — equity ranks last. Defaulting promoters are generally barred from bidding (§29A).
Earlier warning stages
- RBI's Prudential Framework for Resolution of Stressed Assets (7 June 2019): lenders must review a borrower within 30 days of default and implement a resolution plan, or provide more.
- Listed companies must disclose loan defaults to exchanges under SEBI (LODR); a rating downgrade to “D” is a public signal.
- Auditors must report going-concern uncertainty (SA 570 / Ind AS 1).
Frequently asked questions
What do Osia Hyper Retail Limited's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-09, Osia Hyper Retail Limited's public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 35/100, driven by market-implied default probability >20%, share price down >80% from 52-week high and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Osia Hyper Retail Limited's financial distress score?
35/100 ('Watch'). Ohlson O-score 0.55 (model 1-year failure probability 64%). Merton distance-to-default -2.82 σ (model default probability 99.8%).
What works in Osia Hyper Retail Limited's favour?
Strong current ratio (3.56). Revenue still growing (+25% YoY).
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
Under the IBC the Committee of Creditors controls the resolution; the §53 waterfall pays secured creditors and workers first and equity last. In most resolution plans existing shareholders are wiped out or left with a token stake, and the company may be delisted.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.