NMDC Steel Limited — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
NMDC Steel Limited's reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 41/100). The main indicators are operating profit does not cover interest, severe working-capital shortfall and losses in 2 of the last 3 years. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 27% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 0.0%. In its favour: operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) is 0.98×.
When EBIT < interest, debt service is funded from cash reserves or new borrowing — the classic precursor to payment default and covenant breach.
Current ratio is 0.53 (current assets cover 53% of near-term obligations).
Cash-flow insolvency test: inability to pay debts as they fall due is the trigger for both U.S. involuntary petitions and Indian IBC default.
Recurring net losses.
Repeated losses are a core input in both Ohlson and Altman failure models.
Short-term debt is 2.2× cash on hand.
Maturity wall: debt due within a year must be refinanced, which is the most common proximate cause of filings.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
- Revenue still growing (+60% YoY).
- High insider/promoter ownership (61%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- NMDC Steel NSLNISP Reg 74(5) Compliance Certificate Q2 FY27 - Kalkine IndiaGoogle News · 2026-10-06
- NSLNISP Share Price Today - NMDC Steel on NSE/BSE - scanx.tradeGoogle News · 2026-10-02
- NMDC Steel Share Price Today: Market Cap, P/E, Peer View - UnivestGoogle News · 2026-08-28
- News by CNBC TV18 on TradingView, 2026-08-17 — cnbctv:597c6efef094b:0 - TradingViewGoogle News · 2026-08-16
- NMDC Steel jumps nearly 15% after firm swings into black in Q4 with Rs 392-crore net profit - TradingViewGoogle News · 2026-05-31
⚖️ Indian legal pathway — the IBC, 2016
How insolvency starts
- A financial creditor (§7), an operational creditor after a demand notice (§§8–9) or the company itself (§10) can apply to the NCLT once a default of at least ₹1 crore occurs (§4).
- On admission a moratorium (§14) stops suits and recovery; the board is suspended and an insolvency professional runs the company.
- The Committee of Creditors approves a resolution plan with 66% of voting share (§30(4)) within an outer limit of 330 days (§12); otherwise liquidation (§33) under the §53 waterfall — equity ranks last. Defaulting promoters are generally barred from bidding (§29A).
Earlier warning stages
- RBI's Prudential Framework for Resolution of Stressed Assets (7 June 2019): lenders must review a borrower within 30 days of default and implement a resolution plan, or provide more.
- Listed companies must disclose loan defaults to exchanges under SEBI (LODR); a rating downgrade to “D” is a public signal.
- Auditors must report going-concern uncertainty (SA 570 / Ind AS 1).
Frequently asked questions
What do NMDC Steel Limited's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-09, NMDC Steel Limited's public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 41/100, driven by operating profit does not cover interest, severe working-capital shortfall and losses in 2 of the last 3 years. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is NMDC Steel Limited's financial distress score?
41/100 ('Watch'). Ohlson O-score -0.97 (model 1-year failure probability 27%). Merton distance-to-default 3.94 σ (model default probability 0.0%).
What works in NMDC Steel Limited's favour?
Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months. Revenue still growing (+60% YoY). High insider/promoter ownership (61%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
Under the IBC the Committee of Creditors controls the resolution; the §53 waterfall pays secured creditors and workers first and equity last. In most resolution plans existing shareholders are wiped out or left with a token stake, and the company may be delisted.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.