NITCO Limited — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
NITCO Limited's reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 43/100). The main indicators are thin interest coverage, very high leverage and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 66% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 0.0%. In its favour: strong current ratio (2.07).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Interest coverage is only 1.42× (lenders typically require ≥ 2–3×).
Low coverage leaves little buffer against a profit dip before a debt-service or covenant breach.
Total debt is 6.4× EBITDA.
Debt above ~6× EBITDA is deep sub-investment-grade territory; refinancing becomes difficult when rates or earnings move against the company.
O-score 0.68 → model probability 66%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Recurring net losses.
Repeated losses are a core input in both Ohlson and Altman failure models.
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years. The company is profitable, so this likely reflects working-capital or loan-book growth.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Strong current ratio (2.07).
- Revenue still growing (+72% YoY).
📰 Recent news scan
- Nitco Stock Signals to Watch This Week - UnivestGoogle News · 2026-09-24
- Nitco shareholders approve FY26 results, raise Authum deal limit - scanx.tradeGoogle News · 2026-09-21
- Nitco Ltd. Key Financial Ratios – Valuation, Profitability & More - Value ResearchGoogle News · 2026-08-29
- Nitco shares jump nearly 14% on Alibaug land deal with HOABL; up to ₹1,500 crore payout expected - CNBC TV18Google News · 2026-08-25
- PE veteran Mathew Cyriac takes stake in Indian tiles maker Nitco - DealroomGoogle News · 2026-06-06
- NITCO's (NSE:NITCO) Attractive Earnings Are Not All Good News For Shareholders - Simply Wall StreetGoogle News · 2026-05-21
⚖️ Indian legal pathway — the IBC, 2016
How insolvency starts
- A financial creditor (§7), an operational creditor after a demand notice (§§8–9) or the company itself (§10) can apply to the NCLT once a default of at least ₹1 crore occurs (§4).
- On admission a moratorium (§14) stops suits and recovery; the board is suspended and an insolvency professional runs the company.
- The Committee of Creditors approves a resolution plan with 66% of voting share (§30(4)) within an outer limit of 330 days (§12); otherwise liquidation (§33) under the §53 waterfall — equity ranks last. Defaulting promoters are generally barred from bidding (§29A).
Earlier warning stages
- RBI's Prudential Framework for Resolution of Stressed Assets (7 June 2019): lenders must review a borrower within 30 days of default and implement a resolution plan, or provide more.
- Listed companies must disclose loan defaults to exchanges under SEBI (LODR); a rating downgrade to “D” is a public signal.
- Auditors must report going-concern uncertainty (SA 570 / Ind AS 1).
Frequently asked questions
What do NITCO Limited's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-09, NITCO Limited's public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 43/100, driven by thin interest coverage, very high leverage and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is NITCO Limited's financial distress score?
43/100 ('Watch'). Ohlson O-score 0.68 (model 1-year failure probability 66%). Merton distance-to-default 4.38 σ (model default probability 0.0%).
What works in NITCO Limited's favour?
Strong current ratio (2.07). Revenue still growing (+72% YoY).
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
Under the IBC the Committee of Creditors controls the resolution; the §53 waterfall pays secured creditors and workers first and equity last. In most resolution plans existing shareholders are wiped out or left with a token stake, and the company may be delisted.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.