Loyal Textile Mills Limited — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Loyal Textile Mills Limited's reported numbers place it in the 'Very weak' financial-health band (distress score 87/100). The main indicators are operating profit does not cover interest, market-implied default probability >20% and losses in each of the last 3 years. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 86% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 20.8%. In its favour: operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) is -1.19×.
When EBIT < interest, debt service is funded from cash reserves or new borrowing — the classic precursor to payment default and covenant breach.
Merton distance-to-default 0.81 σ → PD 21%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Revenue changed -33% year over year.
A >30% sales drop typically breaches leverage covenants and starves fixed-cost coverage.
Debt is 41% of assets while EBITDA is not positive.
With no operating earnings, repayment depends entirely on asset sales or fresh capital.
O-score 1.81 → model probability 86%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Current ratio is 0.85.
Short-term obligations exceed short-term resources — the company relies on rolling over credit.
Revenue declined every year for three years.
Structural, not cyclical, decline.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
- High insider/promoter ownership (86%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- Loyal Textile Mills Ltd (NSE: LOYALTEX) Rises 15.52% as Stock Draws Market Attention - Kalkine IndiaGoogle News · 2026-09-23
- Volume Gainers, September 23, 2026 at 3:30 PM IST - HDFC SkyGoogle News · 2026-09-23
- Loyal Textile Mills Share Price News: stock gains 8.46% - UnivestGoogle News · 2026-09-18
- Is Loyal Textile Mills (NSE: LOYALTEX) Stock Losing Momentum After Its Recent Price Recovery? - Kalkine IndiaGoogle News · 2026-08-20
⚖️ Indian legal pathway — the IBC, 2016
How insolvency starts
- A financial creditor (§7), an operational creditor after a demand notice (§§8–9) or the company itself (§10) can apply to the NCLT once a default of at least ₹1 crore occurs (§4).
- On admission a moratorium (§14) stops suits and recovery; the board is suspended and an insolvency professional runs the company.
- The Committee of Creditors approves a resolution plan with 66% of voting share (§30(4)) within an outer limit of 330 days (§12); otherwise liquidation (§33) under the §53 waterfall — equity ranks last. Defaulting promoters are generally barred from bidding (§29A).
Earlier warning stages
- RBI's Prudential Framework for Resolution of Stressed Assets (7 June 2019): lenders must review a borrower within 30 days of default and implement a resolution plan, or provide more.
- Listed companies must disclose loan defaults to exchanges under SEBI (LODR); a rating downgrade to “D” is a public signal.
- Auditors must report going-concern uncertainty (SA 570 / Ind AS 1).
Frequently asked questions
What do Loyal Textile Mills Limited's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-09, Loyal Textile Mills Limited's public financial data places it in the 'Very weak' band with a distress score of 87/100, driven by operating profit does not cover interest, market-implied default probability >20% and losses in each of the last 3 years. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Loyal Textile Mills Limited's financial distress score?
87/100 ('Very weak'). Ohlson O-score 1.81 (model 1-year failure probability 86%). Merton distance-to-default 0.81 σ (model default probability 20.8%).
What works in Loyal Textile Mills Limited's favour?
Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months. High insider/promoter ownership (86%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
Under the IBC the Committee of Creditors controls the resolution; the §53 waterfall pays secured creditors and workers first and equity last. In most resolution plans existing shareholders are wiped out or left with a token stake, and the company may be delisted.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.