Kalyani Commercials Limited — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Kalyani Commercials Limited's reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 35/100). The main indicators are thin interest coverage, very high leverage and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 97% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 0.1%. In its favour: revenue still growing (+52% yoy).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Interest coverage is only 1.19× (lenders typically require ≥ 2–3×).
Low coverage leaves little buffer against a profit dip before a debt-service or covenant breach.
Total debt is 8.1× EBITDA.
Debt above ~6× EBITDA is deep sub-investment-grade territory; refinancing becomes difficult when rates or earnings move against the company.
O-score 3.55 → model probability 97%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Operating cash flow negative in 2 of the last 3 years. The company is profitable, so this likely reflects working-capital or loan-book growth.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Revenue still growing (+52% YoY).
📰 Recent news scan
- Kalyani Steels Stock Signals to Watch This Week - UnivestGoogle News · 2026-09-28
- Kalyani Steels Completes 4.85% Stake Acquisition in Clean Renewable Energy - scanx.tradeGoogle News · 2026-09-27
- Kalyani Forge Limited (NSE: KALYANIFRG) Falls 5.00% as Stock Movement Draws Market Attention - Kalkine IndiaGoogle News · 2026-09-07
- KALYANI.NS Interactive Stock Chart | KALYANI COMMERCIALS LTD Stock - Yahoo FinanceGoogle News · 2026-08-28
- Kalyani Steels Final Dividend Ex-Date Tomorrow for Rs 10 Per Share Payout; Stock Closes 1.71% Lower in Previous Session - TradingViewGoogle News · 2026-07-30
⚖️ Indian legal pathway — the IBC, 2016
How insolvency starts
- A financial creditor (§7), an operational creditor after a demand notice (§§8–9) or the company itself (§10) can apply to the NCLT once a default of at least ₹1 crore occurs (§4).
- On admission a moratorium (§14) stops suits and recovery; the board is suspended and an insolvency professional runs the company.
- The Committee of Creditors approves a resolution plan with 66% of voting share (§30(4)) within an outer limit of 330 days (§12); otherwise liquidation (§33) under the §53 waterfall — equity ranks last. Defaulting promoters are generally barred from bidding (§29A).
Earlier warning stages
- RBI's Prudential Framework for Resolution of Stressed Assets (7 June 2019): lenders must review a borrower within 30 days of default and implement a resolution plan, or provide more.
- Listed companies must disclose loan defaults to exchanges under SEBI (LODR); a rating downgrade to “D” is a public signal.
- Auditors must report going-concern uncertainty (SA 570 / Ind AS 1).
Frequently asked questions
What do Kalyani Commercials Limited's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-09, Kalyani Commercials Limited's public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 35/100, driven by thin interest coverage, very high leverage and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Kalyani Commercials Limited's financial distress score?
35/100 ('Watch'). Ohlson O-score 3.55 (model 1-year failure probability 97%). Merton distance-to-default 3.25 σ (model default probability 0.1%).
What works in Kalyani Commercials Limited's favour?
Revenue still growing (+52% YoY).
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
Under the IBC the Committee of Creditors controls the resolution; the §53 waterfall pays secured creditors and workers first and equity last. In most resolution plans existing shareholders are wiped out or left with a token stake, and the company may be delisted.
Other Consumer Discretionary companies with distress indicators
- Balkrishna Paper Mills Limited (BALKRISHNA)Very weak 100/100
- CLC Industries Limited (CLCIND)Very weak 100/100
- Flexituff Ventures International Limited (FLEXITUFF)Very weak 100/100
- Praxis Home Retail Limited (PRAXIS)Very weak 100/100
- SEL Manufacturing Company Limited (SELMC)Very weak 100/100
- Spencer's Retail Limited (SPENCERS)Very weak 100/100
All Consumer Discretionary companies with distress indicators →
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.