Godrej Properties Limited — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Godrej Properties Limited's reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 40/100). The main indicators are operating profit does not cover interest, very high leverage and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 50% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 0.0%. In its favour: high insider/promoter ownership (58%) aligns management with survival.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) is -4.74×.
When EBIT < interest, debt service is funded from cash reserves or new borrowing — the classic precursor to payment default and covenant breach.
Total debt is 13.0× EBITDA.
Debt above ~6× EBITDA is deep sub-investment-grade territory; refinancing becomes difficult when rates or earnings move against the company.
O-score 0.00 → model probability 50%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years. The company is profitable, so this likely reflects working-capital or loan-book growth.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- High insider/promoter ownership (58%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- GODREJPROP Outlook for the Week - EquitypanditGoogle News · 2026-10-01
- Godrej Properties Share Price News: Valuation and Sector - UnivestGoogle News · 2026-09-16
- GODREJPROP Q2 2026 Earnings: Modest 4.72% Revenue Growth and ₹61.42 EPS as Stock Slips 1.82% - New Analyst Coverage - https://www.siam.in/Google News · 2026-09-01
- Godrej Properties (NSE:GODREJPROP) Could Be A Buy For Its Upcoming Dividend - Simply Wall StreetGoogle News · 2026-07-24
- GODREJPROP Forecast — Price Target — Prediction for 2027 - TradingViewGoogle News · 2026-06-25
- Godrej Properties stock slips over 2% after sharp rally; brokerages remain bullish post Q4 results - TradingViewGoogle News · 2026-05-04
⚖️ Indian legal pathway — the IBC, 2016
How insolvency starts
- A financial creditor (§7), an operational creditor after a demand notice (§§8–9) or the company itself (§10) can apply to the NCLT once a default of at least ₹1 crore occurs (§4).
- On admission a moratorium (§14) stops suits and recovery; the board is suspended and an insolvency professional runs the company.
- The Committee of Creditors approves a resolution plan with 66% of voting share (§30(4)) within an outer limit of 330 days (§12); otherwise liquidation (§33) under the §53 waterfall — equity ranks last. Defaulting promoters are generally barred from bidding (§29A).
Earlier warning stages
- RBI's Prudential Framework for Resolution of Stressed Assets (7 June 2019): lenders must review a borrower within 30 days of default and implement a resolution plan, or provide more.
- Listed companies must disclose loan defaults to exchanges under SEBI (LODR); a rating downgrade to “D” is a public signal.
- Auditors must report going-concern uncertainty (SA 570 / Ind AS 1).
Frequently asked questions
What do Godrej Properties Limited's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-09, Godrej Properties Limited's public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 40/100, driven by operating profit does not cover interest, very high leverage and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Godrej Properties Limited's financial distress score?
40/100 ('Watch'). Ohlson O-score 0.0 (model 1-year failure probability 50%). Merton distance-to-default 3.91 σ (model default probability 0.0%).
What works in Godrej Properties Limited's favour?
High insider/promoter ownership (58%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
Under the IBC the Committee of Creditors controls the resolution; the §53 waterfall pays secured creditors and workers first and equity last. In most resolution plans existing shareholders are wiped out or left with a token stake, and the company may be delisted.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.