Goa Carbon Limited — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Goa Carbon Limited's reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 48/100). The main indicators are operating profit does not cover interest, material debt with no ebitda and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 69% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 0.0%. In its favour: operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) is -0.83×.
When EBIT < interest, debt service is funded from cash reserves or new borrowing — the classic precursor to payment default and covenant breach.
Debt is 45% of assets while EBITDA is not positive.
With no operating earnings, repayment depends entirely on asset sales or fresh capital.
O-score 0.81 → model probability 69%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Recurring net losses.
Repeated losses are a core input in both Ohlson and Altman failure models.
Operating margin fell from 12% to -4% in two years.
Sharp margin compression signals loss of pricing power or cost control.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
- Strong current ratio (1.62).
- Revenue still growing (+37% YoY).
- High insider/promoter ownership (62%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- Goa Carbon secures approval to borrow from promoters for working capital - scanx.tradeGoogle News · 2026-10-04
- Goa Carbon resumes operations at Bilaspur unit after shutdown - scanx.tradeGoogle News · 2026-10-03
- Goa Carbon 20% Move: Key Chart Analysis - Kalkine IndiaGoogle News · 2026-09-09
- Momentum Stocks: Goa Carbon, Grand Foundry, ESDS Software locked at upper circuit - Moneycontrol.comGoogle News · 2026-09-09
- Goa Carbon Share Price Target 2026: Rs 505 Analyst Forecast - UnivestGoogle News · 2026-06-19
⚖️ Indian legal pathway — the IBC, 2016
How insolvency starts
- A financial creditor (§7), an operational creditor after a demand notice (§§8–9) or the company itself (§10) can apply to the NCLT once a default of at least ₹1 crore occurs (§4).
- On admission a moratorium (§14) stops suits and recovery; the board is suspended and an insolvency professional runs the company.
- The Committee of Creditors approves a resolution plan with 66% of voting share (§30(4)) within an outer limit of 330 days (§12); otherwise liquidation (§33) under the §53 waterfall — equity ranks last. Defaulting promoters are generally barred from bidding (§29A).
Earlier warning stages
- RBI's Prudential Framework for Resolution of Stressed Assets (7 June 2019): lenders must review a borrower within 30 days of default and implement a resolution plan, or provide more.
- Listed companies must disclose loan defaults to exchanges under SEBI (LODR); a rating downgrade to “D” is a public signal.
- Auditors must report going-concern uncertainty (SA 570 / Ind AS 1).
Frequently asked questions
What do Goa Carbon Limited's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-09, Goa Carbon Limited's public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 48/100, driven by operating profit does not cover interest, material debt with no ebitda and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Goa Carbon Limited's financial distress score?
48/100 ('Watch'). Ohlson O-score 0.81 (model 1-year failure probability 69%). Merton distance-to-default 4.1 σ (model default probability 0.0%).
What works in Goa Carbon Limited's favour?
Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months. Strong current ratio (1.62). Revenue still growing (+37% YoY). High insider/promoter ownership (62%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
Under the IBC the Committee of Creditors controls the resolution; the §53 waterfall pays secured creditors and workers first and equity last. In most resolution plans existing shareholders are wiped out or left with a token stake, and the company may be delisted.
Other Metals, Mining & Chemicals companies with distress indicators
- Andhra Cements Limited (ACL)Very weak 100/100
- Astron Paper & Board Mill Limited (ASTRON)Very weak 100/100
- Burnpur Cement Limited (BURNPUR)Very weak 100/100
- Shrenik Limited (SHRENIK)Very weak 100/100
- Thirumalai Chemicals Limited (TIRUMALCHM)Very weak 100/100
- Zenith Steel Pipes & Industries Limited (ZENITHSTL)Very weak 100/100
All Metals, Mining & Chemicals companies with distress indicators →
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.