GMR Airports Limited — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
GMR Airports Limited's reported numbers place it in the 'Weak' financial-health band (distress score 60/100). The main indicators are liabilities exceed assets (negative equity), thin interest coverage and very high leverage. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 46% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 0.0%. In its favour: operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Total liabilities are 1.03× total assets.
Balance-sheet insolvency test: debts exceeding the fair value of assets is the statutory definition of net-worth erosion; under the Companies Act 2013 it is a recognised sign of financial sickness.
Interest coverage is only 1.08× (lenders typically require ≥ 2–3×).
Low coverage leaves little buffer against a profit dip before a debt-service or covenant breach.
Total debt is 6.9× EBITDA.
Debt above ~6× EBITDA is deep sub-investment-grade territory; refinancing becomes difficult when rates or earnings move against the company.
Current ratio is 0.77.
Short-term obligations exceed short-term resources — the company relies on rolling over credit.
Recurring net losses.
Repeated losses are a core input in both Ohlson and Altman failure models.
Short-term debt is 1.7× cash on hand.
Maturity wall: debt due within a year must be refinanced, which is the most common proximate cause of filings.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
- Revenue still growing (+42% YoY).
- High insider/promoter ownership (71%) aligns management with survival.
- Large market capitalisation — strong access to capital markets.
📰 Recent news scan
- GMR Airports (NSEI:GMRAIRPORT) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions - Simply Wall StreetGoogle News · 2026-10-06
- GMR Airports Share Price Today Drops on Weak Price Action - UnivestGoogle News · 2026-10-01
- GMRAIRPORT Forecast — Price Target — Prediction for 2027 - TradingViewGoogle News · 2026-06-25
- Five Stocks To Buy: ACME Solar, GMR Airport, BSE And More | June 05, 2026 - NDTV ProfitGoogle News · 2026-06-05
- GMR Airports gains 6% after Q4 turnaround; JM Fin keeps buy for 17% upside - Business StandardGoogle News · 2026-05-29
⚖️ Indian legal pathway — the IBC, 2016
How insolvency starts
- A financial creditor (§7), an operational creditor after a demand notice (§§8–9) or the company itself (§10) can apply to the NCLT once a default of at least ₹1 crore occurs (§4).
- On admission a moratorium (§14) stops suits and recovery; the board is suspended and an insolvency professional runs the company.
- The Committee of Creditors approves a resolution plan with 66% of voting share (§30(4)) within an outer limit of 330 days (§12); otherwise liquidation (§33) under the §53 waterfall — equity ranks last. Defaulting promoters are generally barred from bidding (§29A).
Earlier warning stages
- RBI's Prudential Framework for Resolution of Stressed Assets (7 June 2019): lenders must review a borrower within 30 days of default and implement a resolution plan, or provide more.
- Listed companies must disclose loan defaults to exchanges under SEBI (LODR); a rating downgrade to “D” is a public signal.
- Auditors must report going-concern uncertainty (SA 570 / Ind AS 1).
Frequently asked questions
What do GMR Airports Limited's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-09, GMR Airports Limited's public financial data places it in the 'Weak' band with a distress score of 60/100, driven by liabilities exceed assets (negative equity), thin interest coverage and very high leverage. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is GMR Airports Limited's financial distress score?
60/100 ('Weak'). Ohlson O-score -0.18 (model 1-year failure probability 46%). Merton distance-to-default 5.45 σ (model default probability 0.0%).
What works in GMR Airports Limited's favour?
Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months. Revenue still growing (+42% YoY). High insider/promoter ownership (71%) aligns management with survival. Large market capitalisation — strong access to capital markets.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
Under the IBC the Committee of Creditors controls the resolution; the §53 waterfall pays secured creditors and workers first and equity last. In most resolution plans existing shareholders are wiped out or left with a token stake, and the company may be delisted.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.