Advent Hotels International Limited — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Advent Hotels International Limited's reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 39/100). The main indicators are market-implied default probability >20%, severe working-capital shortfall and near-term debt exceeds cash. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 99% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 47.0%. In its favour: operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Merton distance-to-default 0.08 σ → PD 47%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Current ratio is 0.03 (current assets cover 3% of near-term obligations).
Cash-flow insolvency test: inability to pay debts as they fall due is the trigger for both U.S. involuntary petitions and Indian IBC default.
Short-term debt is 15.5× cash on hand.
Maturity wall: debt due within a year must be refinanced, which is the most common proximate cause of filings.
Price is -63% from its 52-week high.
For financial firms a share-price run often precedes a deposit or funding run (confidence channel).
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
- High insider/promoter ownership (46%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- Advent Hotels International (ADVENTHTL.NS) Eases 0.36% to ₹121.77, Holding Above ₹115.68 Support - ATR Trailing Stop - https://www.siam.in/Google News · 2026-10-08
- Advent Hotels International (ADVENTHTL) Share Price near 52-week low as stock falls 2.46% - UnivestGoogle News · 2026-10-08
- Advent Hotels International (ADVENTHTL.NS) Drops 2.36% to ₹138.48, Testing the Mid-Point of a Key Trading Range - Bullish Sentiment - siam.inGoogle News · 2026-08-26
- ADVENTHTL Stock Price and Chart — NSE:ADVENTHTL - TradingViewGoogle News · 2026-07-06
⚖️ Indian legal pathway — the IBC, 2016
How insolvency starts
- A financial creditor (§7), an operational creditor after a demand notice (§§8–9) or the company itself (§10) can apply to the NCLT once a default of at least ₹1 crore occurs (§4).
- On admission a moratorium (§14) stops suits and recovery; the board is suspended and an insolvency professional runs the company.
- The Committee of Creditors approves a resolution plan with 66% of voting share (§30(4)) within an outer limit of 330 days (§12); otherwise liquidation (§33) under the §53 waterfall — equity ranks last. Defaulting promoters are generally barred from bidding (§29A).
Earlier warning stages
- RBI's Prudential Framework for Resolution of Stressed Assets (7 June 2019): lenders must review a borrower within 30 days of default and implement a resolution plan, or provide more.
- Listed companies must disclose loan defaults to exchanges under SEBI (LODR); a rating downgrade to “D” is a public signal.
- Auditors must report going-concern uncertainty (SA 570 / Ind AS 1).
Frequently asked questions
What do Advent Hotels International Limited's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-09, Advent Hotels International Limited's public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 39/100, driven by market-implied default probability >20%, severe working-capital shortfall and near-term debt exceeds cash. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Advent Hotels International Limited's financial distress score?
39/100 ('Watch'). Ohlson O-score 4.32 (model 1-year failure probability 99%). Merton distance-to-default 0.08 σ (model default probability 47.0%).
What works in Advent Hotels International Limited's favour?
Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months. High insider/promoter ownership (46%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
Under the IBC the Committee of Creditors controls the resolution; the §53 waterfall pays secured creditors and workers first and equity last. In most resolution plans existing shareholders are wiped out or left with a token stake, and the company may be delisted.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.