Aastha Spintex Limited — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Aastha Spintex Limited's reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 45/100). The main indicators are market-implied default probability >20%, ohlson o-score signals likely failure and current liabilities exceed current assets. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 88% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 69.7%. In its favour: revenue still growing (+16% yoy).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Merton distance-to-default -0.52 σ → PD 70%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
O-score 1.97 → model probability 88%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Current ratio is 0.96.
Short-term obligations exceed short-term resources — the company relies on rolling over credit.
Short-term debt is 9.0× cash on hand.
Maturity wall: debt due within a year must be refinanced, which is the most common proximate cause of filings.
Price is -62% from its 52-week high.
For financial firms a share-price run often precedes a deposit or funding run (confidence channel).
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Revenue still growing (+16% YoY).
- High insider/promoter ownership (63%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- AASTHA Share Price Today - Aastha Spintex Ltd. Stock Price Live NSE/BSE - UnivestGoogle News · 2026-10-08
- Aastha Spintex Limited (AASTHA.BO) stock historical prices and data - Yahoo Finance UKGoogle News · 2026-10-06
- Aastha Spintex Limited (AASTHA.BO) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo! Finance CanadaGoogle News · 2026-10-04
- Aastha Spintex shares jump 7% after adjusting for 1:1 bonus - All you need to know - CNBC TV18 - LinkedInGoogle News · 2026-09-28
- Aastha Spintex shares rise 9% after adjusting for 1:1 bonus issue - TradingViewGoogle News · 2026-09-28
- Aastha Spintex Secures ₹25 Crore Fabric Orders; Shares Fall 9.99% - HDFC SkyGoogle News · 2026-09-24
⚖️ Indian legal pathway — the IBC, 2016
How insolvency starts
- A financial creditor (§7), an operational creditor after a demand notice (§§8–9) or the company itself (§10) can apply to the NCLT once a default of at least ₹1 crore occurs (§4).
- On admission a moratorium (§14) stops suits and recovery; the board is suspended and an insolvency professional runs the company.
- The Committee of Creditors approves a resolution plan with 66% of voting share (§30(4)) within an outer limit of 330 days (§12); otherwise liquidation (§33) under the §53 waterfall — equity ranks last. Defaulting promoters are generally barred from bidding (§29A).
Earlier warning stages
- RBI's Prudential Framework for Resolution of Stressed Assets (7 June 2019): lenders must review a borrower within 30 days of default and implement a resolution plan, or provide more.
- Listed companies must disclose loan defaults to exchanges under SEBI (LODR); a rating downgrade to “D” is a public signal.
- Auditors must report going-concern uncertainty (SA 570 / Ind AS 1).
Frequently asked questions
What do Aastha Spintex Limited's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-09, Aastha Spintex Limited's public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 45/100, driven by market-implied default probability >20%, ohlson o-score signals likely failure and current liabilities exceed current assets. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Aastha Spintex Limited's financial distress score?
45/100 ('Watch'). Ohlson O-score 1.97 (model 1-year failure probability 88%). Merton distance-to-default -0.52 σ (model default probability 69.7%).
What works in Aastha Spintex Limited's favour?
Revenue still growing (+16% YoY). High insider/promoter ownership (63%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
Under the IBC the Committee of Creditors controls the resolution; the §53 waterfall pays secured creditors and workers first and equity last. In most resolution plans existing shareholders are wiped out or left with a token stake, and the company may be delisted.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.