Yatra Online, Inc. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Yatra Online, Inc.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 39/100). The main indicators are market-implied default probability >20%, operations consume cash and trading below $1. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 7% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 92.6%. In its favour: cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Merton distance-to-default -1.44 σ → PD 93%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
Last price $0.90.
Below the $1 minimum-bid listing standard (Nasdaq Rule 5550(a)(2) / NYSE 802.01C); sustained breach leads to delisting and loss of capital-market access.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years. Partly offset by positive operating cash flow and net cash.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
- Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
- Strong current ratio (2.02).
- Revenue still growing (+90% YoY).
📰 Recent news scan
- Yatra Issues Statement in Response to Magna’s Amendment and Extension of Its Unsolicited Tender OfferYahoo Finance · 2026-09-14
- Yatra Online, Inc. Board of Directors Unanimously Rejects Magna Holdings’ Unsolicited Partial Tender OfferYahoo Finance · 2026-09-01
- Yatra Confirms Commencement of Unsolicited Partial Tender Offer by Magna Holdings Ltd.Yahoo Finance · 2026-08-21
- Yatra Online Inc (YTRA) (Q1 2027) Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Geopolitical Headwinds ...Yahoo Finance · 2026-08-13
- Yatra Online, Inc. Receives Nasdaq Notification LetterYahoo Finance · 2026-07-01
- Yatra Online Inc (YTRA) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue Growth Amidst ...Yahoo Finance · 2026-05-25
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do Yatra Online, Inc.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, Yatra Online, Inc.'s public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 39/100, driven by market-implied default probability >20%, operations consume cash and trading below $1. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Yatra Online, Inc.'s financial distress score?
39/100 ('Watch'). Ohlson O-score -2.56 (model 1-year failure probability 7%). Merton distance-to-default -1.44 σ (model default probability 92.6%).
What works in Yatra Online, Inc.'s favour?
Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet). Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months. Strong current ratio (2.02). Revenue still growing (+90% YoY).
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.