Venture Global, Inc. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Venture Global, Inc.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 38/100). The main indicators are market-implied default probability >20%, very high leverage and current liabilities exceed current assets. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 37% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 35.9%. In its favour: operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Merton distance-to-default 0.36 σ → PD 36%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Total debt is 6.2× EBITDA.
Debt above ~6× EBITDA is deep sub-investment-grade territory; refinancing becomes difficult when rates or earnings move against the company.
Current ratio is 0.87.
Short-term obligations exceed short-term resources — the company relies on rolling over credit.
Operating margin fell from 61% to 37% in two years.
Sharp margin compression signals loss of pricing power or cost control.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
- Revenue still growing (+177% YoY).
📰 Recent news scan
- Venture Global shares rise amid report Chinese buyers eye expanded U.S. LNG dealsYahoo Finance · 2026-10-06
- Can Strong Global LNG Demand Drive More Upside for Venture Global?Yahoo Finance · 2026-10-05
- ConocoPhillips Joins Venture Global's Long-Term LNG BuyersYahoo Finance · 2026-10-02
- ConocoPhillips Signs 20-Year LNG Deal With Venture GlobalYahoo Finance · 2026-10-02
- Venture Global jumps on ConocoPhillips LNG supply dealYahoo Finance · 2026-10-01
- Venture Global and ConocoPhillips Announce 20-Year LNG Sales and Purchase AgreementYahoo Finance · 2026-10-01
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do Venture Global, Inc.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, Venture Global, Inc.'s public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 38/100, driven by market-implied default probability >20%, very high leverage and current liabilities exceed current assets. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Venture Global, Inc.'s financial distress score?
38/100 ('Watch'). Ohlson O-score -0.54 (model 1-year failure probability 37%). Merton distance-to-default 0.36 σ (model default probability 35.9%).
What works in Venture Global, Inc.'s favour?
Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months. Revenue still growing (+177% YoY).
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other Energy, Oil & Gas companies with distress indicators
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.