Upstream Bio, Inc. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Upstream Bio, Inc.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 45/100). The main indicators are losses in each of the last 3 years, operations consume cash and share price down >80% from 52-week high. In its favour: revenue still growing (+20% yoy).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
Price is -86% from its 52-week high.
Equity markets price distress early; collapses of this size usually reflect fear of wipe-out in a restructuring.
Cash covers ~23 months of free-cash-flow burn.
Funding needs within two years make the company dependent on capital-market access.
Operating margin fell from -1685% to -5619% in two years.
Sharp margin compression signals loss of pricing power or cost control.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Revenue still growing (+20% YoY).
📰 Recent news scan
- Upstream Bio Presents Results from the Phase 2 VALIANT Trial of Verekitug for the Treatment of Severe Asthma in Oral Presentation at ERS Congress 2026Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-08
- Upstream Bio on Track to Begin Two Phase 3 Verekitug Trials in Q1 2027Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-01
- Upstream Bio Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Highlights Continued ProgressYahoo Finance · 2026-08-11
- Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) Upgraded to Buy: What Does It Mean for the Stock?Yahoo Finance · 2026-07-14
- Is Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) the Best Low Priced Stocks to Get Rich in 2026?Yahoo Finance · 2026-06-23
- Upstream Bio Presents New Responder Analyses Demonstrating Clinically Meaningful Improvements in CRSwNP in Significant Majority of Participants Treated with Verekitug in the Phase 2 VIBRANT Trial at EAACI 2026Yahoo Finance · 2026-06-14
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do Upstream Bio, Inc.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, Upstream Bio, Inc.'s public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 45/100, driven by losses in each of the last 3 years, operations consume cash and share price down >80% from 52-week high. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Upstream Bio, Inc.'s financial distress score?
45/100 ('Watch').
What works in Upstream Bio, Inc.'s favour?
Revenue still growing (+20% YoY).
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other Pharma & Biotech companies with distress indicators
- ABVC BioPharma, Inc. (ABVC)Very weak 100/100
- AKAN (AKAN)Very weak 100/100
- Endovia Health Sciences, Inc. (EDVA)Very weak 100/100
- Elicio Therapeutics, Inc. (ELTX)Very weak 100/100
- IM Cannabis Corp. (IMCC)Very weak 100/100
- NeuroSense Therapeutics Ltd. (NRSN)Very weak 100/100
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.