UFG — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
UFG's reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 45/100). The main indicators are market-implied default probability >20%, operations consume cash and share price down >80% from 52-week high. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 94% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 60.1%. In its favour: cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Merton distance-to-default -0.26 σ → PD 60%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Operating cash flow negative in 2 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
Price is -96% from its 52-week high.
Equity markets price distress early; collapses of this size usually reflect fear of wipe-out in a restructuring.
O-score 2.75 → model probability 94%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Last price $0.37.
Below the $1 minimum-bid listing standard (Nasdaq Rule 5550(a)(2) / NYSE 802.01C); sustained breach leads to delisting and loss of capital-market access.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
- Revenue still growing (+70% YoY).
- High insider/promoter ownership (45%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- Uni-Fuels Reports Record First-Half 2026 Financial Results and Raises Full-Year Revenue Guidance to US$340M-US$360MYahoo Finance · 2026-09-09
- Uni-Fuels Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Notification Letter Regarding Minimum Price DeficiencyYahoo Finance · 2026-07-31
- UFG: Uni-Fuels Strong 1st Quarter Revenue Growth Supports Price Target of $5.00Yahoo Finance · 2026-06-25
- Uni-Fuels Reports First Quarter 2026 Results and Raises Full Year Revenue Guidance to US$320M–US$340MYahoo Finance · 2026-05-26
- UFG: Uni-Fuels Strong Revenue Growth Supports Price Target of $5.00Yahoo Finance · 2026-04-24
- Uni-Fuels Reports Audited FY2025 Results with 70% Revenue Growth and Expanding Global OperationsYahoo Finance · 2026-04-22
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do UFG's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, UFG's public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 45/100, driven by market-implied default probability >20%, operations consume cash and share price down >80% from 52-week high. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is UFG's financial distress score?
45/100 ('Watch'). Ohlson O-score 2.75 (model 1-year failure probability 94%). Merton distance-to-default -0.26 σ (model default probability 60.1%).
What works in UFG's favour?
Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet). Revenue still growing (+70% YoY). High insider/promoter ownership (45%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other Unclassified companies with distress indicators
- CNEY (CNEY)Very weak 100/100
- EPOW (EPOW)Very weak 100/100
- GIBO (GIBO)Very weak 100/100
- GNS (GNS)Very weak 100/100
- HKPD (HKPD)Very weak 100/100
- HUBC (HUBC)Very weak 100/100
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.