TMC the metals company Inc. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
TMC the metals company Inc.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Weak' financial-health band (distress score 62/100). The main indicators are liabilities exceed assets (negative equity), losses in each of the last 3 years and operations consume cash. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 100%. In its favour: strong current ratio (2.17).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Total liabilities are 1.15× total assets.
Balance-sheet insolvency test: debts exceeding the fair value of assets is the statutory definition of 'insolvent' in 11 U.S.C. §101(32).
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
O-score 7.00 → model probability 100%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Price is -68% from its 52-week high.
For financial firms a share-price run often precedes a deposit or funding run (confidence channel).
Share count up +24% in a year.
Large issuance usually funds operating losses rather than growth.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Strong current ratio (2.17).
- High insider/promoter ownership (46%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- MP, CRML, TMC, UAMY Stocks In Focus: Goldman Sachs Sees AI Driving A Global ‘Mine-To-Magnet’ Investment Cycle - StocktwitsGoogle News · 2026-10-08
- TMC stock hits 52-week low at 3.4 USD By Investing.com - Investing.com South AfricaGoogle News · 2026-10-08
- TMC News | TMC THE METALS CO INC (NASDAQ:TMC) - ChartMillGoogle News · 2026-10-03
- TMC the metals (NasdaqGS:TMC) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions - Simply Wall StreetGoogle News · 2026-09-21
- TMC The Metals (TMC) Stock Looks Fully Priced Despite NOAA Permit Review - Yahoo FinanceGoogle News · 2026-08-24
- Forget TMC The Metals Company: This Rare Earth Stock Is the Smarter Bet Right Now - The Motley FoolGoogle News · 2026-08-06
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do TMC the metals company Inc.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, TMC the metals company Inc.'s public financial data places it in the 'Weak' band with a distress score of 62/100, driven by liabilities exceed assets (negative equity), losses in each of the last 3 years and operations consume cash. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is TMC the metals company Inc.'s financial distress score?
62/100 ('Weak'). Ohlson O-score 7.0 (model 1-year failure probability 100%).
What works in TMC the metals company Inc.'s favour?
Strong current ratio (2.17). High insider/promoter ownership (46%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other Metals, Mining & Chemicals companies with distress indicators
- Braskem S.A. (BAK)Very weak 100/100
- Largo Inc. (LGO)Very weak 100/100
- Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. (OMEX)Very weak 100/100
- BGL (BGL)Very weak 98/100
- Electra Battery Materials Corporation (ELBM)Very weak 88/100
- Bioceres Crop Solutions Corp. (BIOX)Very weak 87/100
All Metals, Mining & Chemicals companies with distress indicators →
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.