Molson Coors Beverage Company — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Molson Coors Beverage Company's reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 35/100). The main indicators are market-implied default probability >20%, severe working-capital shortfall and near-term debt exceeds cash. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 34% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 84.5%. In its favour: operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Merton distance-to-default -1.01 σ → PD 84%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Current ratio is 0.54 (current assets cover 54% of near-term obligations).
Cash-flow insolvency test: inability to pay debts as they fall due is the trigger for both U.S. involuntary petitions and Indian IBC default.
Short-term debt is 1.1× cash on hand.
Maturity wall: debt due within a year must be refinanced, which is the most common proximate cause of filings.
0 severe and 1 moderate distress-related headlines in the last 6 months.
Headlines are corroborating evidence only; they are weighted lightly and never drive a flag alone.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
- Comfortable interest coverage (6.9×).
📰 Recent news scan
- downgradeMolson Coors: Cheap Enough To Keep Me Interested (Rating Downgrade) (TAP) - Seeking AlphaGoogle News · 2026-09-30
- Top Big Data Stocks to Tap the Growing AI Analytics Opportunity - Zacks Investment ResearchGoogle News · 2026-10-01
- (TAP.A) Risk Channels and Responsive Allocation - Stock Traders DailyGoogle News · 2026-09-27
- Molson Coors Stock: Is TAP Underperforming the Consumer Defensive Sector? - Yahoo FinanceGoogle News · 2026-09-24
- Molson Coors Stock: This Undervaluation Is Simply Too Hard To Justify (NYSE:TAP) - Seeking AlphaGoogle News · 2026-08-17
- Molson Coors (TAP) Q2 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates - Yahoo FinanceGoogle News · 2026-08-06
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do Molson Coors Beverage Company's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, Molson Coors Beverage Company's public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 35/100, driven by market-implied default probability >20%, severe working-capital shortfall and near-term debt exceeds cash. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Molson Coors Beverage Company's financial distress score?
35/100 ('Watch'). Ohlson O-score -0.68 (model 1-year failure probability 34%). Merton distance-to-default -1.01 σ (model default probability 84.5%).
What works in Molson Coors Beverage Company's favour?
Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months. Comfortable interest coverage (6.9×).
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other Consumer Staples companies with distress indicators
- AMASS Brands, Inc. (AMSS)Very weak 100/100
- Borealis Foods Inc. (BRLS)Very weak 100/100
- Reed's, Inc. (REED)Very weak 100/100
- Sadot Group Inc. (SDOT)Very weak 100/100
- Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc. (RMCF)Very weak 97/100
- Sow Good Inc. (SOWG)Very weak 97/100
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.