Swarmer, Inc — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Swarmer, Inc's reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 40/100). The main indicators are operations consume cash, share price down >80% from 52-week high and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 99% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 0.1%. In its favour: cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Operating cash flow negative in 2 of the last 2 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
Price is -83% from its 52-week high.
Equity markets price distress early; collapses of this size usually reflect fear of wipe-out in a restructuring.
O-score 4.56 → model probability 99%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Recurring net losses.
Repeated losses are a core input in both Ohlson and Altman failure models.
0 severe and 1 moderate distress-related headlines in the last 6 months.
Headlines are corroborating evidence only; they are weighted lightly and never drive a flag alone.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
- Strong current ratio (17.99).
- High insider/promoter ownership (69%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- dilutSWMR Stock Crashes Toward Worst Week Ever As Ratel Deal Fuels Dilution Fears — Retail Buys The Dip - Yahoo FinanceGoogle News · 2026-09-15
- SWMR Stock Surges 6% Today – A Look At The Key Highlights Of Its Latest Drone Collaboration - StocktwitsGoogle News · 2026-10-07
- Swarmer (Nasdaq:SWMR) - Stock Analysis - Simply Wall StreetGoogle News · 2026-10-06
- Why SWMR Stock Soared Over 500% In Nasdaq Debut Today - StocktwitsGoogle News · 2026-10-06
- SWMR Should I Buy - Intellectia AIGoogle News · 2026-10-03
- $SWMR stock is down 10% today. Here's what we see in our data. - Quiver QuantitativeGoogle News · 2026-09-28
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do Swarmer, Inc's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, Swarmer, Inc's public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 40/100, driven by operations consume cash, share price down >80% from 52-week high and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Swarmer, Inc's financial distress score?
40/100 ('Watch'). Ohlson O-score 4.56 (model 1-year failure probability 99%). Merton distance-to-default 3.14 σ (model default probability 0.1%).
What works in Swarmer, Inc's favour?
Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet). Strong current ratio (17.99). High insider/promoter ownership (69%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other IT & Software companies with distress indicators
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.