Sono Group N.V. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Sono Group N.V.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Weak' financial-health band (distress score 66/100). The main indicators are liabilities exceed assets (negative equity), market-implied default probability >20% and share price down >80% from 52-week high. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 99% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 42.2%. In its favour: high insider/promoter ownership (38%) aligns management with survival.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Total liabilities are 1.08× total assets.
Balance-sheet insolvency test: debts exceeding the fair value of assets is the statutory definition of 'insolvent' in 11 U.S.C. §101(32).
Merton distance-to-default 0.20 σ → PD 42%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Price is -86% from its 52-week high.
Equity markets price distress early; collapses of this size usually reflect fear of wipe-out in a restructuring.
O-score 4.31 → model probability 99%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Current ratio is 0.93.
Short-term obligations exceed short-term resources — the company relies on rolling over credit.
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years. The company is profitable, so this likely reflects working-capital or loan-book growth.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- High insider/promoter ownership (38%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- SONO Group (SSM) Stock Forum and Discussion - MoomooGoogle News · 2026-10-06
- SSM Forecast — Price Target — Prediction for 2027 - TradingViewGoogle News · 2026-10-06
- SSM Stock Pops As Traders Eye Speculative Momentum - StocksToTradeGoogle News · 2026-10-02
- SSM Stock Pops As Traders Zero In On Turnaround Hopes - Timothy SykesGoogle News · 2026-10-02
- Alpine Fox buys about $371K of Sono Group (SSM) shares, with no present plans to influence control. - Stock TitanGoogle News · 2026-10-01
- $SSM stock is up 47% today. Here's what we see in our data. - Quiver QuantitativeGoogle News · 2026-09-01
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do Sono Group N.V.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, Sono Group N.V.'s public financial data places it in the 'Weak' band with a distress score of 66/100, driven by liabilities exceed assets (negative equity), market-implied default probability >20% and share price down >80% from 52-week high. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Sono Group N.V.'s financial distress score?
66/100 ('Weak'). Ohlson O-score 4.31 (model 1-year failure probability 99%). Merton distance-to-default 0.2 σ (model default probability 42.2%).
What works in Sono Group N.V.'s favour?
High insider/promoter ownership (38%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.