San Juan Basin Royalty Trust — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust's reported numbers place it in the 'Weak' financial-health band (distress score 54/100). The main indicators are severe working-capital shortfall, revenue collapse and material debt with no ebitda. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 100% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 0.0%.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Current ratio is 0.00 (current assets cover 0% of near-term obligations).
Cash-flow insolvency test: inability to pay debts as they fall due is the trigger for both U.S. involuntary petitions and Indian IBC default.
Revenue changed -100% year over year.
A >30% sales drop typically breaches leverage covenants and starves fixed-cost coverage.
Debt is 35% of assets while EBITDA is not positive.
With no operating earnings, repayment depends entirely on asset sales or fresh capital.
O-score 20.30 → model probability 100%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Operating margin fell from 98% to 73% in two years.
Sharp margin compression signals loss of pricing power or cost control.
Revenue declined every year for three years.
Structural, not cyclical, decline.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- No material mitigating factors found in the available data.
📰 Recent news scan
- San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Provides Update on Operations and LiquidityYahoo Finance · 2026-09-28
- /R E I S S U E D/ -- Glenbrook Capital Management/Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-14
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do San Juan Basin Royalty Trust's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, San Juan Basin Royalty Trust's public financial data places it in the 'Weak' band with a distress score of 54/100, driven by severe working-capital shortfall, revenue collapse and material debt with no ebitda. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is San Juan Basin Royalty Trust's financial distress score?
54/100 ('Weak'). Ohlson O-score 20.3 (model 1-year failure probability 100%). Merton distance-to-default 12.29 σ (model default probability 0.0%).
What works in San Juan Basin Royalty Trust's favour?
No material mitigating factors were found in the available data.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other Energy, Oil & Gas companies with distress indicators
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.