SEED — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
SEED's reported numbers place it in the 'Very weak' financial-health band (distress score 100/100). The main indicators are liabilities exceed assets (negative equity), operating profit does not cover interest and cash runway under 12 months. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 100% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 52.1%. In its favour: high insider/promoter ownership (58%) aligns management with survival.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Total liabilities are 1.82× total assets.
Balance-sheet insolvency test: debts exceeding the fair value of assets is the statutory definition of 'insolvent' in 11 U.S.C. §101(32).
Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) is -19.62×.
When EBIT < interest, debt service is funded from cash reserves or new borrowing — the classic precursor to payment default and covenant breach.
At the current free-cash-flow burn, cash covers ~5 months.
Going-concern standard: management must assess ability to continue for 12 months (ASC 205-40). Runway below that horizon forces dilution, asset sales or default.
Merton distance-to-default -0.05 σ → PD 52%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Current ratio is 0.39 (current assets cover 39% of near-term obligations).
Cash-flow insolvency test: inability to pay debts as they fall due is the trigger for both U.S. involuntary petitions and Indian IBC default.
Debt is 31% of assets while EBITDA is not positive.
With no operating earnings, repayment depends entirely on asset sales or fresh capital.
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
O-score 10.59 → model probability 100%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Share count up +89% in a year.
Survival financing: repeated equity raises at depressed prices.
Revenue changed -19% year over year.
Falling sales reduce cash available for debt service.
Last price $0.70.
Below the $1 minimum-bid listing standard (Nasdaq Rule 5550(a)(2) / NYSE 802.01C); sustained breach leads to delisting and loss of capital-market access.
Price is -65% from its 52-week high.
For financial firms a share-price run often precedes a deposit or funding run (confidence channel).
Operating margin fell from -14% to -59% in two years.
Sharp margin compression signals loss of pricing power or cost control.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- High insider/promoter ownership (58%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- Origin Agritech Secures Exclusive Nationwide Rights to Zhongdan 6202, the Flagship Machine-Harvest Corn Hybrid Developed Under China's National 14th Five-Year Plan Breeding ProgramYahoo Finance · 2026-08-05
- Insiders Re-Evaluate Their CN¥2.40m Stock Purchase As Origin Agritech Falls To US$12mYahoo Finance · 2026-06-07
- Origin Agritech Co-Authors Plant Biotechnology Journal Study That Breaks the Long-Standing Trade-Off Between Early-Maturing and High-Yield CornYahoo Finance · 2026-06-02
- Origin Agritech (SEED) Q2 2026 Earnings TranscriptYahoo Finance · 2026-05-27
- Origin Agritech Announces Financial Results for the First Half of Fiscal Year 2026Yahoo Finance · 2026-05-21
- Origin Agritech to Hold Business Update & First Half Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Conference Call on May 22 at 8 a.m. ETYahoo Finance · 2026-05-14
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do SEED's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, SEED's public financial data places it in the 'Very weak' band with a distress score of 100/100, driven by liabilities exceed assets (negative equity), operating profit does not cover interest and cash runway under 12 months. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is SEED's financial distress score?
100/100 ('Very weak'). Ohlson O-score 10.59 (model 1-year failure probability 100%). Merton distance-to-default -0.05 σ (model default probability 52.1%).
What works in SEED's favour?
High insider/promoter ownership (58%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other Unclassified companies with distress indicators
- CNEY (CNEY)Very weak 100/100
- EPOW (EPOW)Very weak 100/100
- GIBO (GIBO)Very weak 100/100
- GNS (GNS)Very weak 100/100
- HKPD (HKPD)Very weak 100/100
- HUBC (HUBC)Very weak 100/100
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.