RUBI — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
RUBI's reported numbers place it in the 'Weak' financial-health band (distress score 50/100). The main indicators are market-implied default probability >20%, very high leverage and share price down >80% from 52-week high. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 80% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 97.7%. In its favour: operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Merton distance-to-default -1.99 σ → PD 98%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Total debt is 6.4× EBITDA.
Debt above ~6× EBITDA is deep sub-investment-grade territory; refinancing becomes difficult when rates or earnings move against the company.
Price is -100% from its 52-week high.
Equity markets price distress early; collapses of this size usually reflect fear of wipe-out in a restructuring.
Share count up +2809% in a year.
Survival financing: repeated equity raises at depressed prices.
Last price $0.58.
Below the $1 minimum-bid listing standard (Nasdaq Rule 5550(a)(2) / NYSE 802.01C); sustained breach leads to delisting and loss of capital-market access.
Revenue declined every year for three years.
Structural, not cyclical, decline.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
📰 Recent news scan
- Top Rubico (RUBI) Competitors 2026 - MarketBeatGoogle News · 2026-10-08
- A new tanker has a seven-year contract lined up for its 2029 arrival. The oil trader can extend it by four years. - Stock TitanGoogle News · 2026-10-06
- Rubico Closes Newbuilding MR Tanker Acquisition, Lifting Potential Revenue Backlog to $374.6 Million - Yahoo FinanceGoogle News · 2026-10-06
- A seven-year charter awaits delivery as Rubico (RUBI) completes its tanker venture acquisition. - Stock TitanGoogle News · 2026-10-06
- $RUBI stock is down 9% today. Here's what we see in our data. - Quiver QuantitativeGoogle News · 2026-09-17
- RUBI Stock Collapses After Parabolic Spike Draws Day Traders - StocksToTradeGoogle News · 2026-07-16
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do RUBI's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, RUBI's public financial data places it in the 'Weak' band with a distress score of 50/100, driven by market-implied default probability >20%, very high leverage and share price down >80% from 52-week high. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is RUBI's financial distress score?
50/100 ('Weak'). Ohlson O-score 1.37 (model 1-year failure probability 80%). Merton distance-to-default -1.99 σ (model default probability 97.7%).
What works in RUBI's favour?
Operating cash flow is positive over the latest 12 months.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other Unclassified companies with distress indicators
- CNEY (CNEY)Very weak 100/100
- EPOW (EPOW)Very weak 100/100
- GIBO (GIBO)Very weak 100/100
- GNS (GNS)Very weak 100/100
- HKPD (HKPD)Very weak 100/100
- HUBC (HUBC)Very weak 100/100
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.