Recon Technology, Ltd. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Recon Technology, Ltd.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Weak' financial-health band (distress score 61/100). The main indicators are market-implied default probability >20%, operations consume cash and share price down >80% from 52-week high. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 19% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 95.9%. In its favour: cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Merton distance-to-default -1.74 σ → PD 96%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
Price is -100% from its 52-week high.
Equity markets price distress early; collapses of this size usually reflect fear of wipe-out in a restructuring.
Share count up +61% in a year.
Survival financing: repeated equity raises at depressed prices.
Cash covers ~15 months of free-cash-flow burn.
Funding needs within two years make the company dependent on capital-market access.
Recurring net losses.
Repeated losses are a core input in both Ohlson and Altman failure models.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
- Strong current ratio (4.24).
📰 Recent news scan
- TRIB, QTRX, RCON: Why These Stocks Are Surging After-Hours Today - StocktwitsGoogle News · 2026-10-08
- Recon Technology Ltd (NASDAQ: RCON) Share Price, RCON Stock News, RCON Share Price & Updates - kalkine.caGoogle News · 2026-10-07
- A ceremony marked a waste-plastic plant's start of operations. Commercial production is planned for FY27. - Stock TitanGoogle News · 2026-09-30
- RECON TECHNOLOGY ($RCON) Releases Q4 2026 Earnings - Quiver QuantitativeGoogle News · 2026-09-30
- RECON TECHNOLOGY ($RCON) Releases Q4 2026 Earnings - MoomooGoogle News · 2026-09-30
- RCON Stock Whipsaws As Routine 6-K Puts Focus On Fundamentals - StocksToTradeGoogle News · 2026-08-25
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do Recon Technology, Ltd.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, Recon Technology, Ltd.'s public financial data places it in the 'Weak' band with a distress score of 61/100, driven by market-implied default probability >20%, operations consume cash and share price down >80% from 52-week high. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Recon Technology, Ltd.'s financial distress score?
61/100 ('Weak'). Ohlson O-score -1.48 (model 1-year failure probability 19%). Merton distance-to-default -1.74 σ (model default probability 95.9%).
What works in Recon Technology, Ltd.'s favour?
Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet). Strong current ratio (4.24).
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other Energy, Oil & Gas companies with distress indicators
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- Vivakor, Inc. (VIVK)Very weak 100/100
- SUNation Energy Inc. (SUNE)Very weak 86/100
- Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ)Very weak 74/100
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.