NVA — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
NVA's reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 38/100). The main indicators are losses in each of the last 3 years, operations consume cash and massive shareholder dilution.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
Share count up +50% in a year.
Survival financing: repeated equity raises at depressed prices.
Price is -64% from its 52-week high.
For financial firms a share-price run often precedes a deposit or funding run (confidence channel).
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- No material mitigating factors found in the available data.
📰 Recent news scan
- Nova Minerals advances Alaska antimony plant towards construction as Estelle drilling wraps upYahoo Finance · 2026-10-08
- Nova Minerals Progresses to Antimony Processing Plant Construction as 2026 Estelle Field Season ConcludesYahoo Finance · 2026-10-08
- Nova Minerals to host investor webinar on Estelle and US antimony strategyYahoo Finance · 2026-10-04
- Invitation to Nova’s Investor Update WebinarYahoo Finance · 2026-10-02
- Nova Minerals and FibroBiologics Interviews to Air Nationally on the RedChip Small Stocks, Big Money(TM) Show on CNBC and Bloomberg TVYahoo Finance · 2026-09-25
- Nova Minerals’ antimony processing project highlighted as anchor at Port MacKenzie Industry DayYahoo Finance · 2026-09-18
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do NVA's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, NVA's public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 38/100, driven by losses in each of the last 3 years, operations consume cash and massive shareholder dilution. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is NVA's financial distress score?
38/100 ('Watch').
What works in NVA's favour?
No material mitigating factors were found in the available data.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other Unclassified companies with distress indicators
- CNEY (CNEY)Very weak 100/100
- EPOW (EPOW)Very weak 100/100
- GIBO (GIBO)Very weak 100/100
- GNS (GNS)Very weak 100/100
- HKPD (HKPD)Very weak 100/100
- HUBC (HUBC)Very weak 100/100
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.