Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Very weak' financial-health band (distress score 72/100). The main indicators are operating profit does not cover interest, cash runway under 12 months and losses in each of the last 3 years. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 97% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 4.0%. In its favour: revenue still growing (+341% yoy).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Interest coverage (EBIT / interest) is -6.53×.
When EBIT < interest, debt service is funded from cash reserves or new borrowing — the classic precursor to payment default and covenant breach.
At the current free-cash-flow burn, cash covers ~11 months.
Going-concern standard: management must assess ability to continue for 12 months (ASC 205-40). Runway below that horizon forces dilution, asset sales or default.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Debt is 58% of assets while EBITDA is not positive.
With no operating earnings, repayment depends entirely on asset sales or fresh capital.
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
O-score 3.40 → model probability 97%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Revenue still growing (+341% YoY).
📰 Recent news scan
- 2G Energy Receives 275 MW Order from Energy Vault Holding Inc, (NYSE: NRGV) for U.S. AI Energy Infrastructure SolutionsYahoo Finance · 2026-09-23
- Energy Vault acquires land for BESS projectYahoo Finance · 2026-09-04
- Energy Vault Accelerates 125 MW / 1 GWh Stoney Creek BESS Toward Construction with Full Project Land Acquisition Milestone in AustraliaYahoo Finance · 2026-09-03
- Energy Vault’s 100 MW AI Infrastructure Project in Sardinia Receives Italian Government Designation as Project of Pre-Eminent National Strategic InterestYahoo Finance · 2026-09-01
- Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. Announces New Hire Awards Under NYSE Listing Rule 303A.08Yahoo Finance · 2026-08-20
- Energy Vault (NRGV) Q2 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptYahoo Finance · 2026-08-18
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.'s public financial data places it in the 'Very weak' band with a distress score of 72/100, driven by operating profit does not cover interest, cash runway under 12 months and losses in each of the last 3 years. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.'s financial distress score?
72/100 ('Very weak'). Ohlson O-score 3.4 (model 1-year failure probability 97%). Merton distance-to-default 1.74 σ (model default probability 4.0%).
What works in Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.'s favour?
Revenue still growing (+341% YoY).
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other Utilities & Power companies with distress indicators
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- Stem, Inc. (STEM)Very weak 81/100
- NextNRG, Inc. (NXXT)Very weak 74/100
- PowerBank Corporation (PBK)Weak 68/100
- Abundia Global Impact Group Inc (AGIG)Weak 60/100
- Brookfield Renewable Corporation (BEPC)Weak 51/100
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.