Moderna, Inc. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Moderna, Inc.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 44/100). The main indicators are losses in each of the last 3 years, revenue collapse and operations consume cash. In its favour: large market capitalisation — strong access to capital markets.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Revenue changed -40% year over year.
A >30% sales drop typically breaches leverage covenants and starves fixed-cost coverage.
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
Operating margin fell from -62% to -158% in two years.
Sharp margin compression signals loss of pricing power or cost control.
Revenue declined every year for three years.
Structural, not cyclical, decline.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Large market capitalisation — strong access to capital markets.
📰 Recent news scan
- Moderna (MRNA) Was Removed From the Nasdaq-100 and Is Going Back In. What Changed? - Yahoo FinanceGoogle News · 2026-10-09
- MRNA Stock Falls Premarket: Citi Turns Bearish On Moderna After Massive 2026 Rally - StocktwitsGoogle News · 2026-10-08
- Moderna (MRNA) COO Juan Andres reports direct ownership of 125,000 common shares. - Stock TitanGoogle News · 2026-10-05
- Moderna Inc Stock (MRNA) Moved Up by 5.71% on Oct 5: What Investors Need To Know - TradingKeyGoogle News · 2026-10-05
- 1 Safe-and-Steady Stock with Competitive Advantages and 2 Facing Headwinds - The Globe and MailGoogle News · 2026-10-05
- Moderna (MRNA) Shares Surge on Cancer Vaccine Optimism Despite C - GuruFocusGoogle News · 2026-10-04
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do Moderna, Inc.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, Moderna, Inc.'s public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 44/100, driven by losses in each of the last 3 years, revenue collapse and operations consume cash. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Moderna, Inc.'s financial distress score?
44/100 ('Watch').
What works in Moderna, Inc.'s favour?
Large market capitalisation — strong access to capital markets.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other Pharma & Biotech companies with distress indicators
- ABVC BioPharma, Inc. (ABVC)Very weak 100/100
- AKAN (AKAN)Very weak 100/100
- Endovia Health Sciences, Inc. (EDVA)Very weak 100/100
- Elicio Therapeutics, Inc. (ELTX)Very weak 100/100
- IM Cannabis Corp. (IMCC)Very weak 100/100
- NeuroSense Therapeutics Ltd. (NRSN)Very weak 100/100
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.