Mount Logan Capital Inc. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Mount Logan Capital Inc.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 46/100). The main indicators are critically thin capital, consecutive annual losses and deep share-price drawdown.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Equity / assets is 4.3% vs a ~10% prudent floor for this business.
Leverage-ratio proxy for regulatory capital (Basel III; U.S. PCA 'well-capitalized' ≥5% leverage; RBI CRAR ≥9% banks / 15% NBFCs). Risk-weighted CET1 is not public in this dataset.
Net loss in each of the last two years.
Sustained losses at a lender usually mean credit losses are outrunning provisions — a risk-management failure.
Price is -64% from its 52-week high.
For financial firms a share-price run often precedes a deposit or funding run (confidence channel).
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- No material mitigating factors found in the available data.
📰 Recent news scan
- MLCI Q2 2026 Earnings: Reported EPS of -0.37 Falls Far Short of Consensus Estimate - Book Value Growth - https://www.dars.gov.et/Google News · 2026-10-04
- Here's Why We're Wary Of Buying Mount Logan Capital's (NASDAQ:MLCI) For Its Upcoming Dividend - Simply Wall StGoogle News · 2026-08-16
- Mount Logan Q2 revenue falls to $8.7 million as net loss widens - Quiver QuantitativeGoogle News · 2026-08-11
- Mount Logan Capital Reports Q2 2026 Results; Segment Income Rises on Strong Insurance Solutions Performance and Yieldstreet Transaction Advances | MLCI Stock News - Quiver QuantitativeGoogle News · 2026-08-11
- MLCI Forecast — Price Target — Prediction for 2027 - TradingViewGoogle News · 2026-06-25
- Mount Logan Capital: A Messy Alt-Manager With An Insurance Kicker (NASDAQ:MLCI) - Seeking AlphaGoogle News · 2026-04-16
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do Mount Logan Capital Inc.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, Mount Logan Capital Inc.'s public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 46/100, driven by critically thin capital, consecutive annual losses and deep share-price drawdown. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Mount Logan Capital Inc.'s financial distress score?
46/100 ('Watch').
What works in Mount Logan Capital Inc.'s favour?
No material mitigating factors were found in the available data.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other Bank & Finance companies with distress indicators
- CaliberCos Inc. (CWD)Very weak 79/100
- loanDepot, Inc. (LDI)Weak 69/100
- Pineapple Financial Inc. (PAPL)Weak 69/100
- TeraWulf Inc. (WULF)Weak 68/100
- SHF Holdings, Inc. (SHFS)Weak 67/100
- Streamex Corp. (STEX)Weak 67/100
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.