LiveWire Group, Inc. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
LiveWire Group, Inc.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 48/100). The main indicators are cash runway under 12 months, losses in each of the last 3 years and operations consume cash. In its favour: high insider/promoter ownership (94%) aligns management with survival.
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
At the current free-cash-flow burn, cash covers ~11 months.
Going-concern standard: management must assess ability to continue for 12 months (ASC 205-40). Runway below that horizon forces dilution, asset sales or default.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
Price is -76% from its 52-week high.
For financial firms a share-price run often precedes a deposit or funding run (confidence channel).
Revenue declined every year for three years.
Structural, not cyclical, decline.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- High insider/promoter ownership (94%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- LiveWire Group Regains Compliance with NYSE Continued Listing StandardsYahoo Finance · 2026-08-10
- From Sturgis to Sliding Sideways in Milwaukee: LiveWire and Gas Monkey Garage Reunite to Build a Custom S4 Honcho™ for New Flat Track Race ClassYahoo Finance · 2026-08-04
- LiveWire Group, Inc. Receives Notice of NYSE Trading Share Price Listing Rule Non-ComplianceYahoo Finance · 2026-07-29
- LiveWire Group Inc (LVWR) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth Amidst ...Yahoo Finance · 2026-07-23
- LiveWire Group, Inc. Q1 2026 Earnings Call SummaryYahoo Finance · 2026-05-06
- LiveWire (LVWR) Q1 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptYahoo Finance · 2026-05-05
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do LiveWire Group, Inc.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, LiveWire Group, Inc.'s public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 48/100, driven by cash runway under 12 months, losses in each of the last 3 years and operations consume cash. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is LiveWire Group, Inc.'s financial distress score?
48/100 ('Watch').
What works in LiveWire Group, Inc.'s favour?
High insider/promoter ownership (94%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.