IceCure Medical Ltd — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
IceCure Medical Ltd's reported numbers place it in the 'Very weak' financial-health band (distress score 71/100). The main indicators are cash runway under 12 months, losses in each of the last 3 years and operations consume cash. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 100% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 7.8%. In its favour: cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
At the current free-cash-flow burn, cash covers ~10 months.
Going-concern standard: management must assess ability to continue for 12 months (ASC 205-40). Runway below that horizon forces dilution, asset sales or default.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
Price is -96% from its 52-week high.
Equity markets price distress early; collapses of this size usually reflect fear of wipe-out in a restructuring.
O-score 8.38 → model probability 100%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Merton distance-to-default 1.42 σ → PD 7.8%.
Investment-grade issuers typically have 1-year PD well below 1%.
Share count up +27% in a year.
Large issuance usually funds operating losses rather than growth.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
- Strong current ratio (2.52).
- High insider/promoter ownership (51%) aligns management with survival.
📰 Recent news scan
- A study tests tumor-freezing as an alternative to surgery for eligible patients with low-risk breast cancer - Stock TitanGoogle News · 2026-10-06
- IceCure Medical (NasdaqCM:ICCM) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions - Simply Wall StreetGoogle News · 2026-08-13
- ICCM Stock On Track For Best Day In Nearly 5 Years — What’s Driving The 200% Rally? - StocktwitsGoogle News · 2026-06-17
- IceCure Stock Surges After 70% ProSense Install Increase - Icecure Medical (NASDAQ:ICCM) - BenzingaGoogle News · 2026-06-17
- IceCure Medical Announces 1-for-30 Reverse Share Split to Support Nasdaq Compliance - PR NewswireGoogle News · 2026-06-02
- IceCure Medical Ltd. (ICCM) Reports Q1 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates - Yahoo FinanceGoogle News · 2026-05-12
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do IceCure Medical Ltd's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, IceCure Medical Ltd's public financial data places it in the 'Very weak' band with a distress score of 71/100, driven by cash runway under 12 months, losses in each of the last 3 years and operations consume cash. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is IceCure Medical Ltd's financial distress score?
71/100 ('Very weak'). Ohlson O-score 8.38 (model 1-year failure probability 100%). Merton distance-to-default 1.42 σ (model default probability 7.8%).
What works in IceCure Medical Ltd's favour?
Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet). Strong current ratio (2.52). High insider/promoter ownership (51%) aligns management with survival.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other Healthcare & MedTech companies with distress indicators
- Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc. (ADGM)Very weak 100/100
- DataMEDS AI, Inc. (MEDS)Very weak 100/100
- OneMedNet Corporation (ONMD)Very weak 100/100
- Profusa, Inc. (PFSA)Very weak 100/100
- Picard Medical, Inc. (PMI)Very weak 100/100
- Synergy CHC Corp. (SNYR)Very weak 100/100
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.