CPI Aerostructures, Inc. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
CPI Aerostructures, Inc.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 35/100). The main indicators are cash runway under 12 months, material debt with no ebitda and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 87% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 0.0%. In its favour: strong current ratio (1.98).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
At the current free-cash-flow burn, cash covers ~2 months.
Going-concern standard: management must assess ability to continue for 12 months (ASC 205-40). Runway below that horizon forces dilution, asset sales or default.
Debt is 37% of assets while EBITDA is not positive.
With no operating earnings, repayment depends entirely on asset sales or fresh capital.
O-score 1.90 → model probability 87%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Strong current ratio (1.98).
📰 Recent news scan
- CPI Aerostructures (CVU) Edges Lower to $5.17 as Shares Test the Lower End of Their Range - Motive Wave - siam.inGoogle News · 2026-10-03
- Cpi Aerostructures Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy CVU? - StockInvest.usGoogle News · 2026-10-02
- CPI Aerostructures (CVU) investors approve directors, pay and auditor - Stock TitanGoogle News · 2026-09-16
- SIFCO vs. CPI Aero: Which Aerospace & Defense Stock Is the Better Buy? - The Globe and MailGoogle News · 2026-09-16
- SIF vs. CVU: Which Aerospace Components Stock Has Better Prospects? - Yahoo FinanceGoogle News · 2026-05-28
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do CPI Aerostructures, Inc.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, CPI Aerostructures, Inc.'s public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 35/100, driven by cash runway under 12 months, material debt with no ebitda and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is CPI Aerostructures, Inc.'s financial distress score?
35/100 ('Watch'). Ohlson O-score 1.9 (model 1-year failure probability 87%). Merton distance-to-default 4.66 σ (model default probability 0.0%).
What works in CPI Aerostructures, Inc.'s favour?
Strong current ratio (1.98).
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.