BIYA — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
BIYA's reported numbers place it in the 'Very weak' financial-health band (distress score 77/100). The main indicators are cash runway under 12 months, market-implied default probability >20% and losses in each of the last 3 years. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 92% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 42.7%. In its favour: cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
At the current free-cash-flow burn, cash covers ~2 months.
Going-concern standard: management must assess ability to continue for 12 months (ASC 205-40). Runway below that horizon forces dilution, asset sales or default.
Merton distance-to-default 0.19 σ → PD 43%.
Structural (Merton/KMV) model: equity is a call option on assets; low distance-to-default means assets are close to the default point.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Operating cash flow negative in 2 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
Price is -99% from its 52-week high.
Equity markets price distress early; collapses of this size usually reflect fear of wipe-out in a restructuring.
O-score 2.47 → model probability 92%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Share count up +137% in a year.
Survival financing: repeated equity raises at depressed prices.
Operating margin fell from -6% to -58% in two years.
Sharp margin compression signals loss of pricing power or cost control.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
- Strong current ratio (5.54).
- Revenue still growing (+29% YoY).
📰 Recent news scan
- BC-Most Active StocksYahoo Finance · 2026-10-07
- Baiya International Group Inc. Announces Reverse Split Record DateYahoo Finance · 2026-07-08
- These Three Stocks Fell More Than 10% Today To Hit 52-Week Lows -- What's Driving The Investor Skepticism?Yahoo Finance · 2026-06-26
- Baiya Renames Crypto Strategy After $1 Million BNB AllocationYahoo Finance · 2026-05-22
- Baiya International Group Inc. Announces Fiscal Year 2025 Financial ResultsYahoo Finance · 2026-04-30
- BIYA Bets on BNB With $1M Crypto Strategy — Buybacks Could Tie Gains Directly to ShareholdersYahoo Finance · 2026-04-28
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do BIYA's financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, BIYA's public financial data places it in the 'Very weak' band with a distress score of 77/100, driven by cash runway under 12 months, market-implied default probability >20% and losses in each of the last 3 years. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is BIYA's financial distress score?
77/100 ('Very weak'). Ohlson O-score 2.47 (model 1-year failure probability 92%). Merton distance-to-default 0.19 σ (model default probability 42.7%).
What works in BIYA's favour?
Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet). Strong current ratio (5.54). Revenue still growing (+29% YoY).
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other IT & Software companies with distress indicators
- Cyabra, Inc. (CYAB)Very weak 100/100
- Exyn Technologies, Inc. (EXYN)Very weak 100/100
- The OLB Group, Inc. (OLB)Very weak 100/100
- Roadzen, Inc. (RDZN)Very weak 100/100
- Rekor Systems, Inc. (REKR)Very weak 100/100
- Veea Inc. (VEEA)Very weak 100/100
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.