BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Weak' financial-health band (distress score 51/100). The main indicators are losses in each of the last 3 years, operations consume cash and massive shareholder dilution. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 41% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 0.0%. In its favour: cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
Share count up +71% in a year.
Survival financing: repeated equity raises at depressed prices.
Revenue changed -19% year over year.
Falling sales reduce cash available for debt service.
Price is -73% from its 52-week high.
For financial firms a share-price run often precedes a deposit or funding run (confidence channel).
Operating margin fell from -23% to -65% in two years.
Sharp margin compression signals loss of pricing power or cost control.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
- Strong current ratio (5.67).
📰 Recent news scan
- BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key InsightsYahoo Finance · 2026-10-08
- BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Stock Dips While Market Gains: Key FactsYahoo Finance · 2026-10-02
- “SoundHound AI Jumps 5% on India Product Launch; BigBear.ai Rises 3%, Pony AI Stays FlatYahoo Finance · 2026-09-30
- What Does BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) CEO Summit Appearance And Board Exit Mean?Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-29
- BigBear.ai vs. Cerebras Systems: Which Technology Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-29
- SoundHound AI vs. BigBear.ai: Revenue Trends Reveal Key Insights About These Artificial Intelligence CompaniesYahoo Finance · 2026-09-28
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s public financial data places it in the 'Weak' band with a distress score of 51/100, driven by losses in each of the last 3 years, operations consume cash and massive shareholder dilution. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s financial distress score?
51/100 ('Weak'). Ohlson O-score -0.37 (model 1-year failure probability 41%). Merton distance-to-default 4.69 σ (model default probability 0.0%).
What works in BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s favour?
Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet). Strong current ratio (5.67).
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
Other IT & Software companies with distress indicators
- Cyabra, Inc. (CYAB)Very weak 100/100
- Exyn Technologies, Inc. (EXYN)Very weak 100/100
- The OLB Group, Inc. (OLB)Very weak 100/100
- Roadzen, Inc. (RDZN)Very weak 100/100
- Rekor Systems, Inc. (REKR)Very weak 100/100
- Veea Inc. (VEEA)Very weak 100/100
Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.