AST SpaceMobile, Inc. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 36/100). The main indicators are losses in each of the last 3 years, operations consume cash and cash runway under 24 months. In its favour: revenue still growing (+1505% yoy).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
Cash covers ~20 months of free-cash-flow burn.
Funding needs within two years make the company dependent on capital-market access.
Share count up +37% in a year.
Large issuance usually funds operating losses rather than growth.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Revenue still growing (+1505% YoY).
- Large market capitalisation — strong access to capital markets.
📰 Recent news scan
- ASTS Stock Slides After-Hours As SpaceX Snags Grain Spectrum: Analyst Who Called The Deal Says ‘Ligado Is Next’ - Yahoo FinanceGoogle News · 2026-10-09
- ASTS, SPCX And NN Stocks Slide: Clear Street Calls FCC Meeting Agenda Mixed For AST SpaceMobile - TradingViewGoogle News · 2026-10-08
- Lawsuit Shock Sends AST SpaceMobile Stock Tumbling - TipRanksGoogle News · 2026-10-08
- ASTS Stock Eyes Green Week: Retail Sees ‘Major Catalysts’ For New Highs As Bezos Targets Blue Origin’s December Return - Yahoo FinanceGoogle News · 2026-10-08
- 21.84% of AST SpaceMobile’s Float Is Betting Against It. Here’s What the Convoy Doesn’t Fix. - Barchart.comGoogle News · 2026-10-07
- William Blair cuts AST Spacemobile revenue estimate on launch delays - Investing.comGoogle News · 2026-10-05
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do AST SpaceMobile, Inc.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, AST SpaceMobile, Inc.'s public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 36/100, driven by losses in each of the last 3 years, operations consume cash and cash runway under 24 months. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is AST SpaceMobile, Inc.'s financial distress score?
36/100 ('Watch').
What works in AST SpaceMobile, Inc.'s favour?
Revenue still growing (+1505% YoY). Large market capitalisation — strong access to capital markets.
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.