Almonty Industries Inc. — financial distress indicators
Financial-health summary
Almonty Industries Inc.'s reported numbers place it in the 'Watch' financial-health band (distress score 43/100). The main indicators are losses in each of the last 3 years, operations consume cash and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. Independently, the Ohlson accounting model puts its 1-year failure probability at 57% and the market-implied (Merton) default probability is 0.0%. In its favour: cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
Stress by dimension
Share price — last 12 months
Indicators behind the score
Each red flag shows the evidence from the company’s own filings and the financial or legal principle behind it. Points add to the 0–100 score.
Net income negative in 3 of 3 fiscal years.
Persistent losses erode equity and the capacity to absorb shocks.
Operating cash flow negative in 3 of the last 3 years.
A business that cannot fund itself from operations depends on external capital to survive.
O-score 0.29 → model probability 57%.
Ohlson (1980) logit model of 1-year corporate failure; O > 0 (p > 50%) is the original failure cut-off.
Share count up +49% in a year.
Large issuance usually funds operating losses rather than growth.
Operating margin fell from -26% to -90% in two years.
Sharp margin compression signals loss of pricing power or cost control.
Revenue vs net income
Cash generation
Debt vs cash vs equity
✅ Mitigating factors
- Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet).
- Strong current ratio (2.45).
- Revenue still growing (+13% YoY).
📰 Recent news scan
- Almonty Secures Corrective Disclosure from Pure Tungsten Following Successful Settlement Confirming Tiger Kim Held No Leadership Role at Almonty at Any TimeYahoo Finance · 2026-10-02
- Tungsten Has Tripled in 2026 as U.S. Explorers Race to DrillYahoo Finance · 2026-10-01
- Almonty Industries (ALM) Gets Final Plant Approval. Can Sangdong Turn Production Into Cash?Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-28
- Stifel starts Almonty with $25 price target on Western tungsten expansionYahoo Finance · 2026-09-25
- Is Almonty Industries (ALM) the Next Big Breakout Stock?Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-25
- Almonty Industries (ALM) Could Be 64% Undervalued After Its New Tungsten Offtake DealYahoo Finance · 2026-09-22
⚖️ U.S. legal pathway — Title 11, U.S. Code
Which chapter would apply?
- Chapter 11 — reorganisation. Management usually stays in control as debtor-in-possession; the automatic stay (§362) halts collection; a plan must meet the best-interests test (§1129(a)(7)) and the absolute priority rule (§1129(b)) — creditors are paid before shareholders, who are frequently wiped out.
- Chapter 7 — liquidation. A trustee sells assets and distributes proceeds by statutory priority (§§507, 726).
- Subchapter V (“Chapter 5”) is a fast track for small-business debtors under a statutory debt cap, but SEC-reporting companies are excluded (§101(51D)) — so it rarely applies to listed companies.
What typically triggers a filing
- Payment default or covenant breach lenders will not waive; a debt maturity that cannot be refinanced.
- Auditor going-concern doubt (ASC 205-40 / PCAOB AS 2415) — often itself a default trigger in loan agreements.
- Creditors can force a case with an involuntary petition (§303) if debts are not paid as they come due.
- Delisting after sustained sub-$1 prices or equity deficits cuts off equity funding.
Transactions shortly before filing can be clawed back (preferences — 90 days, §547; fraudulent transfers — 2 years, §548).
Frequently asked questions
What do Almonty Industries Inc.'s financial-health indicators show?
As of 2026-10-08, Almonty Industries Inc.'s public financial data places it in the 'Watch' band with a distress score of 43/100, driven by losses in each of the last 3 years, operations consume cash and ohlson o-score signals likely failure. This is a statistical screen of reported numbers — it does not mean the company is insolvent, has defaulted or will enter insolvency proceedings.
What is Almonty Industries Inc.'s financial distress score?
43/100 ('Watch'). Ohlson O-score 0.29 (model 1-year failure probability 57%). Merton distance-to-default 4.27 σ (model default probability 0.0%).
What works in Almonty Industries Inc.'s favour?
Cash on hand covers all debt (net-cash balance sheet). Strong current ratio (2.45). Revenue still growing (+13% YoY).
How are shareholders treated if a company enters insolvency?
In a Chapter 11 reorganisation the absolute priority rule pays secured lenders, then unsecured creditors, before shareholders — so existing shares are usually cancelled or heavily diluted. In Chapter 7 the company is liquidated and shareholders rarely recover anything.
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Methodology
Score = capped sum of rule-based red flags across seven dimensions (liquidity, solvency, profitability, cash flow, sales trend, market signal, news). Ohlson O-score (1980) gives an accounting-based 1-year failure probability; Merton distance-to-default (Bharath & Shumway 2008) gives a market-implied probability. Financial institutions use a capital-based rule set. Recalculated every trading day from the latest filings, prices and news.